Friday 8 April 2022

COVID-19: Are We Over the Final Hump? – Part 3

This is the last of three reports following up on the current COVID situation in Europe. In it, I look at the remainder of Europe, beyond the 14 countries covered by the second report. The data came from Our World in Data and the Blavatnik School of Government, as listed in the first report.

Cases

The graph at the head of this paper shows the daily cases per million (weekly averaged) for 11 countries in south-eastern Europe. These include Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Montenegro, four of the five European countries worst hit by the virus in terms of deaths per million. You can see that in many of the countries there has been a big reduction in new cases from peaks which took place, depending on the country, between Christmas (Cyprus) and the very end of January (Slovenia). Three of the countries, Cyprus, Greece and Slovenia, show a second rise in new cases during March; but the rises in the latter two have been relatively small, and may have already passed a second peak. Albania has also had a small up-turn in new cases recently, as was shown on the weekly case growth list in the second report.

Here are the corresponding graphs for north-eastern Europe, and for the rest of Western Europe beyond those 14 countries covered in the second report:


In the northern part of Eastern Europe, the peaks have been later than in the southern part, ranging from late January to the third week of February. All the countries’ new case rates have dropped substantially from their peaks, though in Czechia (light brown) cases have been wobbling around a roughly constant level for most of March. The data for Ukraine since February 24th should not be trusted, since they currently have more important things to deal with than a mere virus.

In the rest of Western Europe, the peaks ranged from early January (Isle of Man) to late February (Iceland), with Liechtenstein having two peaks, a smaller in January and a larger in March. The highest peak of all belongs to the Faeroe Islands, and (as I observed in the previous paper in regard to Sweden) that peak has the shape of an almost perfect Farr curve. All the countries’ weekly case growths are now negative, except for Malta.

In total cases per million over the course of the epidemic so far, as shown in the list in the second report, the Faeroe Islands top the list, with a staggering 70% of the population having been reported as cases. Andorra, Gibraltar, Iceland, Slovenia, San Marino and Slovakia are all in the top 10, with 45% or more of the population having become cases. At the other end of the table comes the Vatican with only 3%. Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Romania and Malta all have 15% or less of the population diagnosed as cases. It seems that small countries often have either very high or very low cases per million.

Lockdowns

Here are the graphs of lockdown stringencies for the three groups of countries:



In all three groups, certain countries have locked down far more stringently than others. In the south-east, Greece (green line) has been consistently locked down harder than anyone else in the region. In the north-east, Ukraine tops the stringency list, but its data is not to be relied on. In the rest of western Europe, San Marino and Malta are currently highest in stringency, with Andorra, Iceland, Norway, Romania, Hungary and the Faeroe Islands being at the other end of the table.

Here are the lockdowns currently in effect in the three groups of countries:



Of the countries at the bottom of the lists, North Macedonia, Montenegro, the Isle of Man, the Vatican and Gibraltar are not providing lockdown data. But the Faeroe Islands and Iceland now have no lockdown measures in place at all.

Lockdown Harshness

As countries start to unlock more and more, I think it is worthwhile to look at the lockdowns also through the slightly different lens of my “harshness” measure, designed to give a picture of the unpleasantness of lockdowns as experienced by the population. The main differences between harshness and the Blavatnik stringency are:

1.     Harshness includes face covering mandates, whereas stringency does not.

2.     Harshness takes no account of recommendations, only of mandates.

3.     Harshness weights measures affecting everyone (e.g., stay at home, workplace closures) higher than measures affecting only some (e.g., international travel restrictions).

Here is the list of current harshness levels in Europe:

The countries at the top of the list are those which do not report Blavatnik data at all. Those at the bottom are showing zero harshness, so they have no mandates at all. It’s worth noting that within the UK, England and Northern Ireland are also at zero harshness; the mandates are entirely regional ones in Scotland and Wales.

Hospital Occupancy

Here are the COVID hospital occupancies per million for the three groups of countries. Only a restricted number of countries are actually reporting these statistics:



In eastern Europe, as in the core 14 countries discussed in the second report, the trend in COVID hospital occupancy has been downwards since omicron became the primary variant. But in Iceland and Finland, occupancy levels have recently reached their highest levels in the whole epidemic. And Malta has come close to its earlier peak.

Intensive Care Units

Here are the ICU occupancies per million population:



In eastern Europe, the reporting countries have had their ICU occupancies reaching levels comparable with the peaks earlier in the epidemic. But all are now on the way down. In Malta, the recent peak in ICU occupancy has been considerably lower than earlier values. But Finland has had an extended period of relatively high load in its ICUs, comparable with that in the initial outbreak of spring 2020.

Deaths

Here are the daily deaths per million:



In Eastern Europe, the highest peaks in death rates have been down to the delta variant and its predecessors; omicron is less lethal. The data for the mostly small countries in the Rest of Western Europe is harder to decipher, but many of the peak death rates from omicron have been comparable with those from earlier variants.

Finally, here are the graphs of excess mortality relative to the same time of year in a base period of 2015 to 2019. Many of the countries only report this statistic once every three months or so, and some (like Gibraltar) stopped reporting once the numbers became embarrassing:



As in the core of Europe, there has generally been a downward movement in excess mortality since omicron became the dominant variant back in December 2021; though a few countries in Eastern Europe have had relatively small surges in mortality more recently.

Country Profiles

Here are the summaries of the current COVID status of each country in the three groups. The ranking numbers are among all those countries in Europe that are reporting the statistic. The excess mortality figure is given only for those countries which have made a report of this statistic during 2022.

As an aside, I noticed a couple of instances (the Faeroe Islands and Poland) where the daily stringency figures in the Our World in Data feed are some days behind the stringency figures in the Blavatnik feed itself. This can cause an apparent mismatch between the lockdown stringency quoted and the detailed breakdown of the measures. In these cases, it is the detailed breakdown which is correct.

Albania

Albania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 21 (rank 46/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.15 (rank 43/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 46.3% (rank 8/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Travel: Mandatory restrictions, International: Screening, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: A high lockdown strategy. They ought to be trying some unlocks now, unless their hospital and ICU facilities are stretched (which I can’t tell, since they don’t publish that data).

Andorra

Andorra Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 574 (rank 29/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 11.1% (rank 43/45). Measures in place: Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: They think it’s all over! It will be interesting to see how quickly their cases reduce from here on in, compared with countries like Iceland and Sweden, which have no face mask measures at all.

Belarus

Belarus Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 108 (rank 41/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.91 (rank 39/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 19.4% (rank 31/45). Measures in place: International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: Superficially, it doesn’t look too bad in Belarus at the moment. But their cases per million are low, so wait and see.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 33 (rank 45/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.79 (rank 41/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 38.9% (rank 12/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Stay at home: Recommended, International: Screening, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: Another high lockdown strategy. Perhaps as a result of the country’s very high total deaths per million over the course of the epidemic.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 163 (rank 35/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.76 (rank 19/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 47.56% (rank 4/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 21.3% (rank 29/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 296.5 (rank 7/30) (4% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 34.9 (rank 2/26). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, International: Screening, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: That excess mortality figure looks dreadful. But the Bulgarians seem to be working on the principle of Matsch’s Law: “It is better to have a horrible ending than to have horrors without end.” I commend them for it.

Croatia

Croatia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 332 (rank 32/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.05 (rank 17/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 23.71% (rank 10/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 35.2% (rank 16/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 158 (rank 20/30) (2.9% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: Finely balanced, but the lockdowns are not actually as bad as the stringency figure would suggest (the harshness is only 16%). Wait and see.

Cyprus

Cyprus Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 5345 (rank 1/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.07 (rank 27/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 16.63% (rank 15/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 36.1% (rank 14/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 193.1 (rank 14/30) (5.7% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 3.3 (rank 26/26). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Stay at home: Recommended, International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: Quite a high stringency, but the harshness is only 12%. With an average stringency of 58% over the whole epidemic, Cyprus has been 10th hardest locked down by stringency in all of Europe. And yet, their current daily cases per million is by a long way the highest in Europe! This reinforces the point that locking down to control the virus in the early part of the epidemic doesn’t necessarily translate into success later. It also suggests that, if Cypriots are actually obeying the draconian face mask mandate, face masks don’t do much if anything at all to slow virus transmission.

Czechia

Czechia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 602 (rank 28/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.62 (rank 20/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): -6.08% (rank 42/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 47.2% (rank 7/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 159.9 (rank 19/30) (2.4% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 14.8 (rank 10/26) (12.8% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: The Czechs are overdue to do some unlocking!

Estonia

Estonia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 859 (rank 26/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.88 (rank 11/49), Current Excess Mortality (March): 10.23% (rank 21/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 38% (rank 13/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 254.3 (rank 10/30) (5.4% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 12.1 (rank 12/26) (8.3% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to >1000, Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional), International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: Estonia is another country that is overdue for an unlock or two!

Faeroe Islands

Faeroe Islands Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 0 (rank 48/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): -14.22% (rank 46/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45). Measures in place: None!

Verdict: Like the Swedes, the Faeroese seem to have got the damn thing beaten. But I’m not convinced by the timeliness of their data reporting; they haven’t reported a new case since March 2nd, when there were 275! So, for now, I’ll have to put them down as a maybe.

Finland

Finland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1278 (rank 15/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.97 (rank 3/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): -4.92% (rank 39/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 26.9% (rank 23/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 191.9 (rank 15/30) (5.9% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 7.2 (rank 18/26) (11.8% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Public transport: Recommended closed (Regional), International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: A fairly high stringency, but a low harshness. New cases are dropping, but only slowly, which is probably why the Finns haven’t yet followed the Swedes and unlocked everything.

Gibraltar

Gibraltar Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1141 (rank 19/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49).

Verdict: I don’t have any stringency data, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

Greece

Greece Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 2016 (rank 8/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 5.3 (rank 1/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 23.27% (rank 11/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 55.6% (rank 3/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional), Travel: Recommended not to travel, International: Screening, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: The Greek COVID strategy has been a failure. Over the course of the epidemic, they have been second only to the Italians in average lockdown stringency, and also second in average harshness. They already have more deaths per million than the Italians, yet the cumulative cases per million are only middling. There doesn’t seem much possibility of an end in sight.

Greenland

Greenland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 45 (rank 44/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 33.3% (rank 18/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: International: Ban all arrivals/border closure, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: They, like the Swedes, have had a near Farr curve of cases, which has now subsided. Given this, I’d say they ought to reduce their lockdowns to match the Swedish ones.

Hungary

Hungary Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 222 (rank 34/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.71 (rank 14/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 0.14% (rank 32/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 202.7 (rank 12/30) (2.9% full). Measures in place: International: Screening.

Verdict: The Hungarians have had a bad time with COVID – third in Europe in deaths per million. But this seems about as sensible a way to finish the damn thing off as any.

Iceland

Iceland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1695 (rank 10/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.32 (rank 23/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 20.93% (rank 13/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 11.1% (rank 43/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 179 (rank 16/30) (6.1% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 8.1 (rank 15/26) (8.9% full). Measures in place: None!

Verdict: The Icelanders, too, are well on the way to beating the virus.

Isle of Man

Isle of Man Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 2106 (rank 6/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 5.02 (rank 2/49).

Verdict: The Manxmen did well initially, because they were able to close their borders while the UK did not. Now, they are paying a price; but in terms of deaths per million, they are still far better off than any of the four countries of the UK, even Northern Ireland.

Kosovo

Kosovo Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 17 (rank 47/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.32 (rank 42/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): -4.16% (rank 37/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 33.3% (rank 18/45). Measures in place: Schools: Some closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: Kosovo seems to have a remarkably high and continuing level of lockdown, given that its recent new cases graph shows a Farr curve comparable to that in Sweden, and new daily cases are now in the 30s, compared with a peak of almost 4,400 in late January. They should be unlocking as much as they can and as soon as possible.

Latvia

Latvia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1128 (rank 20/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.36 (rank 8/49), Current Excess Mortality (March): 12.71% (rank 17/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 30.1% (rank 22/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 467.1 (rank 2/30) (8.4% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 30 (rank 3/26) (30.9% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed (Regional), Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional), International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: I can see that the pressure on ICUs is discouraging them from unlocking at the moment. Wait and see.

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 2304 (rank 4/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.73 (rank 13/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 31.5% (rank 20/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to >1000, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: Still quite high cases per million, so they aren’t unlocking in a big way. Wait and see.

Lithuania

Lithuania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 983 (rank 23/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.67 (rank 5/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 23.18% (rank 12/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 17.6% (rank 34/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 491.8 (rank 1/30) (7.5% full). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: There is probably less pressure on ICUs in Lithuania than in Latvia, which would account for the lower lockdown stringency and harshness.

Malta

Malta Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1009 (rank 22/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.32 (rank 15/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 12.04% (rank 19/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.8% (rank 5/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 149.2 (rank 21/30) (3.3% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 5.8 (rank 22/26). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: These look to be rather draconian restrictions for a country in the middle of the daily cases per million league, which seems to have no pressure on either hospital beds or ICUs. But averaged over the epidemic, Malta has been in the top third in lockdown harshness. They need to do some unlocking soon.

Moldova

Moldova Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 63 (rank 43/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.82 (rank 40/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 14.8% (rank 36/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: Moldova is rather reminiscent of Belarus. Wait and see.

Monaco

Monaco Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1182 (rank 17/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): -20.48% (rank 48/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 31.5% (rank 20/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, Gatherings: Up to <=10, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: The Monaco lockdown level looks draconian for the country with the lowest current excess mortality in Europe! Wait and see.

Montenegro

Montenegro Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 123 (rank 39/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.91 (rank 38/49).

Verdict: I don’t have any lockdown data, but the Montenegro new cases graph suggests they may now be over the worst.

North Macedonia

North Macedonia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 113 (rank 40/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.06 (rank 29/49).

Verdict: North Macedonia has exactly the same status as Montenegro.

Norway

Norway Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 337 (rank 31/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.68 (rank 4/49), Current Excess Mortality (March): 0.25% (rank 30/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 85.4 (rank 28/30) (2.4% full). Measures in place: International: Screening, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: The Norwegians are quite close to a Farr curve on new cases in the last 3 months or so. That looks to me like a job well done.

Poland

Poland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 144 (rank 38/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.07 (rank 28/49), Current Excess Mortality (March): -8.92% (rank 44/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 24.1% (rank 25/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 141.5 (rank 23/30) (2.1% full). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: It’s a bit odd for the Poles still to be recommending workplace closures when the borders are now fully open without COVID formalities! But the cases graph shows that they are getting there.

Romania

Romania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 161 (rank 36/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.41 (rank 35/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 5.69% (rank 23/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 173 (rank 17/30) (2.5% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 22.4 (rank 8/26). Measures in place: International: Screening, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: The Romanians are looking good.

Russia

Russia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 147 (rank 37/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.38 (rank 22/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 19.23% (rank 14/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 40.3% (rank 11/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Some closed (Regional), Events: Recommended cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 (Regional), Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional), Travel: Recommended not to travel (Regional), International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: The Russians have a long way to go, if only because it’s such a big country.

San Marino

San Marino Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 924 (rank 25/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.2 (rank 9/49), Current Excess Mortality (January): 33.06% (rank 8/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.8% (rank 5/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Recommended not to travel, International: Screening, Face covering: Recommended.

Verdict: The stringency may be high, but the harshness is low (only 12%). The excess mortality doesn’t look good, but it was for January. It can’t be easy for the Sammarinese, being surrounded by Italy, the worst COVID performer in Europe. The big wave of cases is past, but new case counts are still wobbling around, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Serbia

Serbia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 259 (rank 33/50), Reproduction Rate: 0.89 (rank 23/45), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.5 (rank 34/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 44.42% (rank 5/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 36.1% (rank 14/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 101.7 (rank 27/30) (1.8% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 6.1 (rank 21/26). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Stay at home: Recommended, International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: Serbia has quite a high level of lockdown, continuously since January. I suspect it may be the high excess mortality which is stopping any unlocks happening. Wait and see.

Slovakia

Slovakia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1383 (rank 13/50), Reproduction Rate: 0.88 (rank 25/45), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.75 (rank 12/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 1.24% (rank 29/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 20.4% (rank 30/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 409.2 (rank 3/30) (7% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 35.1 (rank 1/26) (38.1% full). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others.

Verdict: I imagine the ICU occupancy is what is stopping any further unlocks. Wait and see.

Slovenia

Slovenia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1269 (rank 16/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.79 (rank 31/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 5.18% (rank 25/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 22.2% (rank 28/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 141.9 (rank 22/30) (3.2% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 25.5 (rank 5/26) (39.8% full). Measures in place: Workplaces: Some closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Face covering: Required in some places.

Verdict: Like Poland, it’s a bit odd that in Slovenia, some workplaces are closed, while the borders are fully open! But despite the high ICU occupancy, it looks as though they may be nearly there.

Ukraine

There is no point in giving a current status report on COVID in Ukraine, as their minds are occupied with more pressing things.

Vatican

No COVID deaths at all in the Vatican, and only two cases since 2020. Maybe there’s something to all this regular washing of the hands in holy water!

To sum up

As in the second paper, I’ll divide the countries into a number of groups, from worst to best.

·       In a mess: Greece.

·       High lockdown, poor performance: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus.

·       A long way to go: Russia.

·       Unclassifiable: Ukraine, Vatican.

·       Need to unlock as soon as possible: Czechia, Estonia, Greenland, Kosovo, Malta.

·       Wait and see: Belarus, Croatia, Gibraltar, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Monaco, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia.

·       Now on the run-in: Bulgaria, Faeroe Islands, Hungary, Iceland, Isle of Man.

·       Nearly there (maybe): Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia.

·       Nearly there: Andorra, Finland, Poland, Romania.

·       Beaten the damn thing: Norway.

Because the initial outbreak spread to Eastern Europe later than it did further west, I expected to find the general COVID status there at this stage worse than further west. It doesn’t actually look quite as bad as I expected. Though, just as in Western Europe, some countries have adopted relatively good COVID strategies, while others have adopted bad ones.

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