This is the last of three reports following up on the current COVID situation in Europe. In it, I look at the remainder of Europe, beyond the 14 countries covered by the second report. The data came from Our World in Data and the Blavatnik School of Government, as listed in the first report.
Cases
The graph at the head of this paper shows the daily cases
per million (weekly averaged) for 11 countries in south-eastern Europe. These
include Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Montenegro, four
of the five European countries worst hit by the virus in terms of deaths per
million. You can see that in many of the countries there has been a big
reduction in new cases from peaks which took place, depending on the country,
between Christmas (Cyprus) and the very end of January (Slovenia). Three of the
countries, Cyprus, Greece and Slovenia, show a second rise in new cases during
March; but the rises in the latter two have been relatively small, and may have
already passed a second peak. Albania has also had a small up-turn in new cases
recently, as was shown on the weekly case growth list in the second report.
Here are the corresponding graphs for north-eastern Europe,
and for the rest of Western Europe beyond those 14 countries covered in the
second report:
In the northern part of Eastern Europe, the peaks have been later than in the southern part, ranging from late January to the third week of February. All the countries’ new case rates have dropped substantially from their peaks, though in Czechia (light brown) cases have been wobbling around a roughly constant level for most of March. The data for Ukraine since February 24th should not be trusted, since they currently have more important things to deal with than a mere virus.
In the rest of Western Europe, the peaks ranged from early
January (Isle of Man) to late February (Iceland), with Liechtenstein having two
peaks, a smaller in January and a larger in March. The highest peak of all
belongs to the Faeroe Islands, and (as I observed in the previous paper in
regard to Sweden) that peak has the shape of an almost perfect Farr curve. All
the countries’ weekly case growths are now negative, except for Malta.
In total cases per million over the course of the epidemic
so far, as shown in the list in the second report, the Faeroe Islands top the
list, with a staggering 70% of the population having been reported as cases.
Andorra, Gibraltar, Iceland, Slovenia, San Marino and Slovakia are all in the
top 10, with 45% or more of the population having become cases. At the other
end of the table comes the Vatican with only 3%. Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Romania and
Malta all have 15% or less of the population diagnosed as cases. It seems that
small countries often have either very high or very low cases per million.
Lockdowns
Here are the graphs of lockdown stringencies for the three
groups of countries:
In all three groups, certain countries have locked down far more stringently than others. In the south-east, Greece (green line) has been consistently locked down harder than anyone else in the region. In the north-east, Ukraine tops the stringency list, but its data is not to be relied on. In the rest of western Europe, San Marino and Malta are currently highest in stringency, with Andorra, Iceland, Norway, Romania, Hungary and the Faeroe Islands being at the other end of the table.
Here are the lockdowns currently in effect in the three
groups of countries:
Of the countries at the bottom of the lists, North Macedonia, Montenegro, the Isle of Man, the Vatican and Gibraltar are not providing lockdown data. But the Faeroe Islands and Iceland now have no lockdown measures in place at all.
Lockdown Harshness
As countries start to unlock more and more, I think it is
worthwhile to look at the lockdowns also through the slightly different lens of
my “harshness” measure, designed to give a picture of the unpleasantness of
lockdowns as experienced by the population. The main differences between
harshness and the Blavatnik stringency are:
1.
Harshness includes face covering mandates,
whereas stringency does not.
2.
Harshness takes no account of recommendations,
only of mandates.
3.
Harshness weights measures affecting everyone (e.g.,
stay at home, workplace closures) higher than measures affecting only some (e.g.,
international travel restrictions).
Here is the list of current harshness levels in Europe:
The countries at the top of the list are those which do not report Blavatnik data at all. Those at the bottom are showing zero harshness, so they have no mandates at all. It’s worth noting that within the UK, England and Northern Ireland are also at zero harshness; the mandates are entirely regional ones in Scotland and Wales.
Hospital Occupancy
Here are the COVID hospital occupancies per million for the three
groups of countries. Only a restricted number of countries are actually
reporting these statistics:
In eastern Europe, as in the core 14 countries discussed in the second report, the trend in COVID hospital occupancy has been downwards since omicron became the primary variant. But in Iceland and Finland, occupancy levels have recently reached their highest levels in the whole epidemic. And Malta has come close to its earlier peak.
Intensive Care Units
Here are the ICU occupancies per million population:
In eastern Europe, the reporting countries have had their ICU occupancies reaching levels comparable with the peaks earlier in the epidemic. But all are now on the way down. In Malta, the recent peak in ICU occupancy has been considerably lower than earlier values. But Finland has had an extended period of relatively high load in its ICUs, comparable with that in the initial outbreak of spring 2020.
Deaths
Here are the daily deaths per million:
In Eastern Europe, the highest peaks in death rates have been down to the delta variant and its predecessors; omicron is less lethal. The data for the mostly small countries in the Rest of Western Europe is harder to decipher, but many of the peak death rates from omicron have been comparable with those from earlier variants.
Finally, here are the graphs of excess mortality relative
to the same time of year in a base period of 2015 to 2019. Many of the
countries only report this statistic once every three months or so, and some
(like Gibraltar) stopped reporting once the numbers became embarrassing:
As in the core of Europe, there has generally been a downward movement in excess mortality since omicron became the dominant variant back in December 2021; though a few countries in Eastern Europe have had relatively small surges in mortality more recently.
Country Profiles
Here are the summaries of the current COVID status of each
country in the three groups. The ranking numbers are among all those countries
in Europe that are reporting the statistic. The excess mortality figure is
given only for those countries which have made a report of this statistic
during 2022.
As an aside, I noticed a couple of instances (the Faeroe
Islands and Poland) where the daily stringency figures in the Our World in Data
feed are some days behind the stringency figures in the Blavatnik feed itself.
This can cause an apparent mismatch between the lockdown stringency quoted and the
detailed breakdown of the measures. In these cases, it is the detailed
breakdown which is correct.
Albania
Albania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 21 (rank
46/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.15 (rank 43/49), Current Lockdown
Stringency: 46.3% (rank 8/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed,
Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up
to 11-100, Travel: Mandatory restrictions, International: Screening, Face
covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: A high lockdown strategy. They ought to be trying
some unlocks now, unless their hospital and ICU facilities are stretched (which
I can’t tell, since they don’t publish that data).
Andorra
Andorra Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 574 (rank 29/50),
Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Lockdown Stringency: 11.1%
(rank 43/45). Measures in place: Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: They think it’s all over! It will be interesting to
see how quickly their cases reduce from here on in, compared with countries
like Iceland and Sweden, which have no face mask measures at all.
Belarus
Belarus Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 108 (rank
41/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.91 (rank 39/49), Current Lockdown
Stringency: 19.4% (rank 31/45). Measures in place: International: Ban some
arrivals, Face covering: Recommended.
Verdict: Superficially, it doesn’t look too bad in Belarus at the
moment. But their cases per million are low, so wait and see.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina Current Status, Daily Cases per
Million: 33 (rank 45/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.79 (rank 41/49), Current
Lockdown Stringency: 38.9% (rank 12/45). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended
cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Stay at home: Recommended, International:
Screening, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: Another high lockdown strategy. Perhaps as a result
of the country’s very high total deaths per million over the course of the
epidemic.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 163 (rank
35/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.76 (rank 19/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 47.56% (rank 4/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 21.3% (rank
29/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 296.5 (rank 7/30) (4% full), ICU
Occupancy per Million: 34.9 (rank 2/26). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, International: Screening,
Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: That excess mortality figure looks dreadful. But
the Bulgarians seem to be working on the principle of Matsch’s Law: “It is
better to have a horrible ending than to have horrors without end.” I commend
them for it.
Croatia
Croatia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 332 (rank
32/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.05 (rank 17/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): 23.71% (rank 10/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 35.2% (rank
16/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 158 (rank 20/30) (2.9% full). Measures
in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events:
Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, International: Quarantine
high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: Finely balanced, but the lockdowns are not actually
as bad as the stringency figure would suggest (the harshness is only 16%). Wait
and see.
Cyprus
Cyprus Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 5345 (rank
1/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.07 (rank 27/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 16.63% (rank 15/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 36.1% (rank
14/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 193.1 (rank 14/30) (5.7% full), ICU
Occupancy per Million: 3.3 (rank 26/26). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended
cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Stay at home: Recommended,
International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.
Verdict: Quite a high stringency, but the harshness is only
12%. With an average stringency of 58% over the whole epidemic, Cyprus has been
10th hardest locked down by stringency in all of Europe. And yet,
their current daily cases per million is by a long way the highest in Europe!
This reinforces the point that locking down to control the virus in the early
part of the epidemic doesn’t necessarily translate into success later. It also
suggests that, if Cypriots are actually obeying the draconian face mask
mandate, face masks don’t do much if anything at all to slow virus
transmission.
Czechia
Czechia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 602 (rank
28/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.62 (rank 20/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): -6.08% (rank 42/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 47.2% (rank 7/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 159.9 (rank 19/30) (2.4% full), ICU Occupancy
per Million: 14.8 (rank 10/26) (12.8% full). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Recommended cancelled,
Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed, International:
Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: The Czechs are overdue to do some unlocking!
Estonia
Estonia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 859 (rank
26/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.88 (rank 11/49), Current Excess Mortality
(March): 10.23% (rank 21/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 38% (rank 13/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 254.3 (rank 10/30) (5.4% full), ICU Occupancy
per Million: 12.1 (rank 12/26) (8.3% full). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended
cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to >1000, Travel: Mandatory
restrictions (Regional), International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering:
Required when with others.
Verdict: Estonia is another country that is overdue for an
unlock or two!
Faeroe Islands
Faeroe Islands Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 0
(rank 48/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Excess
Mortality (January): -14.22% (rank 46/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9%
(rank 37/45). Measures in place: None!
Verdict: Like the Swedes, the Faeroese seem to have got the damn
thing beaten. But I’m not convinced by the timeliness of their data reporting;
they haven’t reported a new case since March 2nd, when there were
275! So, for now, I’ll have to put them down as a maybe.
Finland
Finland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1278 (rank
15/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.97 (rank 3/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): -4.92% (rank 39/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 26.9% (rank
23/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 191.9 (rank 15/30) (5.9% full), ICU
Occupancy per Million: 7.2 (rank 18/26) (11.8% full). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Public transport:
Recommended closed (Regional), International: Quarantine high-risk, Face
covering: Recommended.
Verdict: A fairly high stringency, but a low harshness. New
cases are dropping, but only slowly, which is probably why the Finns haven’t
yet followed the Swedes and unlocked everything.
Gibraltar
Gibraltar Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1141
(rank 19/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49).
Verdict: I don’t have any stringency data, so we’ll just
have to wait and see.
Greece
Greece Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 2016 (rank
8/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 5.3 (rank 1/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): 23.27% (rank 11/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 55.6% (rank 3/45).
Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport:
Recommended closed, Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional), Travel:
Recommended not to travel, International: Screening, Face covering: Required in
some places.
Verdict: The Greek COVID strategy has been a failure. Over
the course of the epidemic, they have been second only to the Italians in
average lockdown stringency, and also second in average harshness. They already
have more deaths per million than the Italians, yet the cumulative cases per
million are only middling. There doesn’t seem much possibility of an end in
sight.
Greenland
Greenland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 45 (rank
44/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Lockdown Stringency:
33.3% (rank 18/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces:
Recommended closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: International: Ban all
arrivals/border closure, Face covering: Recommended.
Verdict: They, like the Swedes, have had a near Farr curve
of cases, which has now subsided. Given this, I’d say they ought to reduce
their lockdowns to match the Swedish ones.
Hungary
Hungary Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 222 (rank
34/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.71 (rank 14/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 0.14% (rank 32/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank
37/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 202.7 (rank 12/30) (2.9% full).
Measures in place: International: Screening.
Verdict: The Hungarians have had a bad time with COVID –
third in Europe in deaths per million. But this seems about as sensible a way
to finish the damn thing off as any.
Iceland
Iceland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1695 (rank 10/50),
Daily Deaths per Million: 2.32 (rank 23/49), Current Excess Mortality (January):
20.93% (rank 13/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 11.1% (rank 43/45), Hospital
Occupancy per Million: 179 (rank 16/30) (6.1% full), ICU Occupancy per Million:
8.1 (rank 15/26) (8.9% full). Measures in place: None!
Verdict: The Icelanders, too, are well on the way to beating
the virus.
Isle of Man
Isle of Man Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 2106
(rank 6/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 5.02 (rank 2/49).
Verdict: The Manxmen did well initially, because they were
able to close their borders while the UK did not. Now, they are paying a price;
but in terms of deaths per million, they are still far better off than any of
the four countries of the UK, even Northern Ireland.
Kosovo
Kosovo Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 17 (rank
47/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.32 (rank 42/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): -4.16% (rank 37/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 33.3% (rank 18/45).
Measures in place: Schools: Some closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, International:
Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others.
Verdict: Kosovo seems to have a remarkably high and
continuing level of lockdown, given that its recent new cases graph shows a
Farr curve comparable to that in Sweden, and new daily cases are now in the
30s, compared with a peak of almost 4,400 in late January. They should be
unlocking as much as they can and as soon as possible.
Latvia
Latvia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1128 (rank
20/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.36 (rank 8/49), Current Excess Mortality
(March): 12.71% (rank 17/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 30.1% (rank 22/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 467.1 (rank 2/30) (8.4% full), ICU Occupancy
per Million: 30 (rank 3/26) (30.9% full). Measures in place: Schools:
Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed (Regional), Gatherings: Up to
11-100 (Regional), International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with
others.
Verdict: I can see that the pressure on ICUs is discouraging
them from unlocking at the moment. Wait and see.
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein Current Status, Daily Cases per Million:
2304 (rank 4/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.73 (rank 13/49), Current Lockdown
Stringency: 31.5% (rank 20/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended
closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to >1000,
International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: Still quite high cases per million, so they
aren’t unlocking in a big way. Wait and see.
Lithuania
Lithuania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 983 (rank
23/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.67 (rank 5/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 23.18% (rank 12/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 17.6% (rank
34/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 491.8 (rank 1/30) (7.5% full). Measures
in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, International: Screening, Face
covering: Required when with others.
Verdict: There is probably less pressure on ICUs in
Lithuania than in Latvia, which would account for the lower lockdown stringency
and harshness.
Malta
Malta Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1009 (rank
22/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.32 (rank 15/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 12.04% (rank 19/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.8% (rank
5/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 149.2 (rank 21/30) (3.3% full), ICU
Occupancy per Million: 5.8 (rank 22/26). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended
closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to
<=10, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with
others.
Verdict: These look to be rather draconian restrictions for
a country in the middle of the daily cases per million league, which seems to
have no pressure on either hospital beds or ICUs. But averaged over the
epidemic, Malta has been in the top third in lockdown harshness. They need to
do some unlocking soon.
Moldova
Moldova Current Status, Daily Cases
per Million: 63 (rank 43/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.82 (rank 40/49),
Current Lockdown Stringency: 14.8% (rank 36/45). Measures in place: Workplaces:
Recommended closed, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: Moldova is rather reminiscent of
Belarus. Wait and see.
Monaco
Monaco Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1182 (rank
17/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 44/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): -20.48% (rank 48/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 31.5% (rank
20/45). Measures in place: Workplaces: Recommended closed, Gatherings: Up to
<=10, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some
places.
Verdict: The Monaco lockdown level looks draconian for the country
with the lowest current excess mortality in Europe! Wait and see.
Montenegro
Montenegro Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 123
(rank 39/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 0.91 (rank 38/49).
Verdict: I don’t have any lockdown data, but the Montenegro
new cases graph suggests they may now be over the worst.
North Macedonia
North Macedonia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 113
(rank 40/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.06 (rank 29/49).
Verdict: North Macedonia has exactly the same status as
Montenegro.
Norway
Norway Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 337 (rank
31/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.68 (rank 4/49), Current Excess Mortality
(March): 0.25% (rank 30/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 85.4 (rank 28/30) (2.4% full). Measures in
place: International: Screening, Face covering: Recommended.
Verdict: The Norwegians are quite close to a Farr curve on
new cases in the last 3 months or so. That looks to me like a job well done.
Poland
Poland Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 144 (rank
38/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.07 (rank 28/49), Current Excess Mortality
(March): -8.92% (rank 44/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 24.1% (rank 25/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 141.5 (rank 23/30) (2.1% full). Measures in place:
Workplaces: Recommended closed, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: It’s a bit odd for the Poles still to be
recommending workplace closures when the borders are now fully open without
COVID formalities! But the cases graph shows that they are getting there.
Romania
Romania Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 161 (rank
36/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.41 (rank 35/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): 5.69% (rank 23/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 13.9% (rank 37/45),
Hospital Occupancy per Million: 173 (rank 17/30) (2.5% full), ICU Occupancy per
Million: 22.4 (rank 8/26). Measures in place: International: Screening, Face
covering: Recommended.
Verdict: The Romanians are looking good.
Russia
Russia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 147 (rank
37/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 2.38 (rank 22/49), Current Excess Mortality
(January): 19.23% (rank 14/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 40.3% (rank 11/45).
Measures in place: Workplaces: Some closed (Regional), Events: Recommended
cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 (Regional), Stay at home:
Required with exceptions (Regional), Travel: Recommended not to travel
(Regional), International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with
others.
Verdict: The Russians have a long way to go, if only because
it’s such a big country.
San Marino
San Marino Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 924
(rank 25/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 4.2 (rank 9/49), Current Excess
Mortality (January): 33.06% (rank 8/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.8%
(rank 5/45). Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces:
Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10,
Public transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Recommended
not to travel, International: Screening, Face covering: Recommended.
Verdict: The stringency may be high, but the harshness is
low (only 12%). The excess mortality doesn’t look good, but it was for January.
It can’t be easy for the Sammarinese, being surrounded by Italy, the worst
COVID performer in Europe. The big wave of cases is past, but new case counts
are still wobbling around, so we’ll have to wait and see.
Serbia
Serbia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 259 (rank
33/50), Reproduction Rate: 0.89 (rank 23/45), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.5
(rank 34/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 44.42% (rank 5/48), Current
Lockdown Stringency: 36.1% (rank 14/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 101.7
(rank 27/30) (1.8% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 6.1 (rank 21/26). Measures
in place: Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events:
Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Stay at home: Recommended,
International: Screening, Face covering: Required when with others.
Verdict: Serbia has quite a high level of lockdown, continuously
since January. I suspect it may be the high excess mortality which is stopping
any unlocks happening. Wait and see.
Slovakia
Slovakia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1383 (rank
13/50), Reproduction Rate: 0.88 (rank 25/45), Daily Deaths per Million: 3.75
(rank 12/49), Current Excess Mortality (February): 1.24% (rank 29/48), Current
Lockdown Stringency: 20.4% (rank 30/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 409.2 (rank
3/30) (7% full), ICU Occupancy per Million: 35.1 (rank 1/26) (38.1% full).
Measures in place: Schools: Recommended closed, International: Quarantine
high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others.
Verdict: I imagine the ICU occupancy is what is stopping any
further unlocks. Wait and see.
Slovenia
Slovenia Current Status, Daily Cases per Million: 1269 (rank
16/50), Daily Deaths per Million: 1.79 (rank 31/49), Current Excess Mortality
(February): 5.18% (rank 25/48), Current Lockdown Stringency: 22.2% (rank
28/45), Hospital Occupancy per Million: 141.9 (rank 22/30) (3.2% full), ICU
Occupancy per Million: 25.5 (rank 5/26) (39.8% full). Measures in place: Workplaces:
Some closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Face covering: Required in some places.
Verdict: Like Poland, it’s a bit odd that in Slovenia, some
workplaces are closed, while the borders are fully open! But despite the high
ICU occupancy, it looks as though they may be nearly there.
Ukraine
There is no point in giving a current status report on COVID
in Ukraine, as their minds are occupied with more pressing things.
Vatican
No COVID deaths at all in the Vatican, and only two cases
since 2020. Maybe there’s something to all this regular washing of the hands in
holy water!
To sum up
As in the second paper, I’ll divide the countries into a
number of groups, from worst to best.
·
In a mess: Greece.
·
High lockdown, poor performance: Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Cyprus.
·
A long way to go: Russia.
·
Unclassifiable: Ukraine, Vatican.
·
Need to unlock as soon as possible: Czechia,
Estonia, Greenland, Kosovo, Malta.
·
Wait and see: Belarus, Croatia, Gibraltar,
Latvia, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Monaco, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia.
·
Now on the run-in: Bulgaria, Faeroe Islands, Hungary,
Iceland, Isle of Man.
·
Nearly there (maybe): Lithuania, Montenegro,
North Macedonia, Slovenia.
·
Nearly there: Andorra, Finland, Poland, Romania.
·
Beaten the damn thing: Norway.
Because the initial outbreak spread to Eastern Europe
later than it did further west, I expected to find the general COVID status
there at this stage worse than further west. It doesn’t actually look quite as bad as
I expected. Though, just as in Western Europe, some countries have adopted
relatively good COVID strategies, while others have adopted bad ones.
No comments:
Post a Comment