COVID-19: Are We Over the Final Hump? – Part 2

This is the second of three reports following up on the current COVID situation in Europe. The first assessed the state of the individual countries which make up the UK. In this, the second, I’ll address my “core Europe” group of 14 countries, including the UK. The third will look at the remainder of Europe. The data came from Our World in Data and the Blavatnik School of Government, as listed in the first report.

Cases

The figure above shows a large and very clear “omicron peak” at the end of 2021 and into early 2022. The earliest peak belongs to Ireland (green), just before the new year. Higher and somewhat later peaks can be seen for Denmark (light grey) and the Netherlands (dark grey). Since then, the countries have been moving every which way; but there seems to be a tendency in many towards a second peak. The most recent peak, at the beginning of March, came from Austria (mid blue). And the one currently going north in a big way is Germany (lighter blue). The two detached at the bottom right are Sweden (black) and Spain (dark blue).

In this paper, when I show lists of countries ordered by a particular statistic such as new cases per million or current lockdown stringency, I’ll show all 50 of the European countries which are reporting COVID statistics. This will enable the countries under study (in this case, my “core Europe” group: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK) to be assessed in the context of other countries around them. It will also avoid the need to repeat the same lists in the third part of this paper.

Here are the current daily new cases per million (weekly averaged):

Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, France, Portugal, the Netherlands and Switzerland are all in the top 12. The rest of the “core Europe” countries also tend to be towards the top of this list; though Sweden is a notable outlier near the bottom.

Here are the same figures, looked at in terms of weekly case growth:

Six of the 14 countries – Portugal, France, Luxembourg, Germany, Spain and Belgium – are among only nine in Europe currently on an upward trend of weekly new case growth. Of the other eight, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria have significant negative weekly case growth.

To put the recent new case counts in the context of the epidemic as a whole, here is the list of cumulative cases per million:

Among the core Europe countries, Denmark has the highest recorded penetration of the virus into the population, with more than 50% of the population having been diagnosed as cases. The Netherlands is second in this statistic. Luxembourg, Belgium, the UK and Ireland are together in the region of 30%, with Germany, Spain, Sweden and Italy being lowest, around 25%.

Lockdowns

The history of new cases in each country must be interpreted in the light of the regulatory backdrop against which all this has been happening. Here is the graph of lockdown stringencies for the 14 countries:

Conspicuous by their high recent lockdown levels are Germany (light blue), Italy (very dark blue) and France (orange). All three reduced their lockdowns during March, with France taking the biggest steps and Italy the smallest. At the other end, Sweden (black) and Denmark (grey) have been leading in the race to unlock as completely as possible; though Ireland (green) and the UK (pink) have recently joined them in that quest.

Here are the lockdowns currently in effect in the 14 countries:

The top four are still under quite stringent lockdowns. By contrast, the bottom four are now under very little COVID restriction at all.

Here is the list of current lockdown stringencies around Europe:

Italy, Germany, Spain and Austria are all in the top ten; while Denmark, the UK and Ireland are all near the bottom.

The slight differences in ordering are because the stacked bar chart includes face covering measures, whereas the Blavatnik stringency measure does not. It’s also worth pointing out that among the constituent countries of the UK, England and Northern Ireland have the same stringency as the bottom three in the list; it is measures in Scotland and Wales which lift the stringency for the UK as a whole.

To give a feel for how different countries are trying to deal with this phase of the epidemic, here are the detailed measures in place, by individual country.

Austria

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	64.81	Schools: Some closed (Regional), Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Required with exceptions, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places
20220124	62.04	International: Quarantine high-risk
20220128	68.52	Workplaces: Mandatory closed Gatherings: Up to <=10
20220131	61.11	Stay at home: No measures
20220212	57.41	Workplaces: Some closed
20220222	54.63	International: Screening
20220305	40.74	Events: Recommended cancelled Gatherings: Up to 11-100 Public transport: Open

The Austrians have suffered recently under a generally cautious, high lockdown strategy. They have surmounted one peak of new cases since the most recent unlock. Verdict: Not a good performance, and they still have some way to go.

Belgium

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211117	50	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others
20220222	46.3	Workplaces: Recommended closed
20220307	42.59	Schools: Open Face covering: Required in some places
20220308	23.15	Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions

The recent Belgian lockdowns have been roughly par for the course among this group of countries. Their new cases have started to rise since late February, but not alarmingly so. Verdict: They look to be in reasonably good shape, at last.

Denmark

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	35.19	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some places
20220111	38.89	Workplaces: Some closed
20220201	16.67	Schools: Open Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions Face covering: No measures
20220301	13.89	International: Screening

A bit of a blip on January 11^th; but otherwise, a smooth looking unlock. When you look at the double peak in new cases in early February, you can see that the unlock on February 1^st almost certainly caused the rise to the second half of the peak. That looks to have been very precisely calculated. Verdict: The Danes, as they have done for so much of the epidemic, are showing the rest of mainland Europe how to do it.

France

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211204	72.22	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Mandatory closed, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: Mandatory restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others
20220109	69.44	Gatherings: Up to 101-1000
20220202	69.44	Face covering: Required in some places
20220314	19.44	Schools: Open Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions Public transport: Open Travel: No restrictions

Until March 14^th, when they seem to have decided to “go for broke,” the French had a very high lockdown strategy. This was not working; in fact, new cases had actually begun to rise again from a minimum around March 1^st. New cases have since risen to a level about two and a half times that minimum, and are still rising quite fast. Verdict: Wait and see.

Germany

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211202	84.26	Schools: Some closed (Regional), Workplaces: Mandatory closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Mandatory closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Mandatory restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places
20220302	80.56	Workplaces: Some closed
20220314	78.7	Workplaces: Some closed (Regional)
20220321	53.7	Events: Allowed Gatherings: Up to 101-1000

In the last few months, the Germans have taken an extreme high-lockdown strategy. They have recently made some relaxations, but nothing on the scale of the French. The effects on daily new case counts have been, to put it mildly, disappointing. They rose to a first peak about February 11^th, came down to a minimum of about 150,000 at the end of February, and since then have climbed to over 250,000 and are still going northwards. And all this while they still have closed public transport and mandatory travel restrictions! Verdict: The Germans should be demanding their money back.

Ireland

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211220	52.78	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others
20220122	23.15	Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions Face covering: Required in some places
20220228	19.44	Schools: Open
20220306	11.11	International: No restrictions
20220309	11.11	Face covering: Recommended

For most of the first year and a half of the epidemic, the Irish were among the hardest locked down in Europe. That has now changed, particularly after the huge unlock on January 22^nd. Irish new case levels started to go up from that point, but not very much. Ireland is now the least locked down country in the core Europe group, with no mandatory restrictions at all. Verdict: The outlook is optimistic from here on in.

Italy

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211206	76.85	Schools: Some closed, Workplaces: Mandatory closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to >1000, Public transport: Mandatory closed, Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional), Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional), International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others (Regional)
20220228	66.67	International: Quarantine high-risk Face covering: Required in some places
20220301	63.89	Stay at home: Recommended Travel: No restrictions

The Italians have used an extreme high-stringency approach. They got over the first omicron hump in mid-January, and cases came down to a low in early March. Since then, cases have risen again, but they do seem just recently to have reached a second peak, and started coming down again. But given that workplaces are still closed, there is still a very, very long way to go. Verdict: Atrocious.

Luxembourg

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	55.56	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places
20220208	46.3	Workplaces: Recommended closed Events: Recommended cancelled
20220308	25	Schools: Open Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions

In the summer of 2020, the Letzebuergesch were the readiest in Europe to unlock. They couldn’t quite keep that up, but they have followed a strategy of generally low lockdown. Although a stringency value of 25 is higher than some neighbouring countries such as Belgium, their only mandatory restrictions are International: Ban some arrivals and Face covering: Required in some places. They surmounted a peak of new cases near the end of January. There was a minimum in mid-February, and cases are still going up. Verdict: It looks as if they are confident they can get over the hump this time.

Netherlands

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	69.44	Schools: Mandatory closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Recommended not to travel, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others
20220110	65.74	Schools: Some closed
20220115	58.33	Schools: Open
20220215	47.22	Gatherings: No restrictions
20220218	47.22	Face covering: Required in some places
20220225	34.26	Workplaces: Open Events: Recommended cancelled

This looks like a smooth, controlled recovery from what the Dutch must admit was a rather panicked Christmas and New Year lockdown. Cases peaked around February 8^th, dropped to a minimum around February 24^th, climbed to a second and lower peak around March 10^th, and are now headed steadily downwards. As in Luxembourg, the majority of restrictions yet to be relaxed are recommendations rather than mandates. Verdict: They’re doing OK since their Christmas panics, but they ought to be doing more unlocking very soon indeed.

Portugal

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	42.59	Schools: Some closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others
20220110	38.89	Schools: Recommended closed
20220115	35.19	Workplaces: Recommended closed
20220212	32.41	International: Screening
20220217	17.59	Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions
20220308	17.59	Face covering: Required in some places

The Portuguese strategy looks like another controlled set of unlocks. Daily new cases peaked at the end of January, wobbled along a bottom for most of March, then just recently seem to have started climbing again. Verdict: Same as the French, wait and see.

Spain

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	46.76	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed (Regional), Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to <=10 (Regional), Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required outside the home
20220210	46.76	Face covering: Required in some places
20220307	43.98	Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional)

The Spaniards surely are taking their time about unlocking! Though the worst restrictions are mainly regional. The peak of daily new cases was hit about January 10^th. The numbers went down steadily until the beginning of March; since when, the cases per million – now second from bottom among the group – have been wobbling, with a minimum about March 14^th followed by another rise. Verdict: Get on with it, chicos y chicas, let people out of jail!

Sweden

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	49.07	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Recommended
20220112	52.78	Stay at home: Recommended
20220122	50	Gatherings: Up to 11-100
20220209	19.44	Schools: Open Workplaces: Open Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions Stay at home: No measures Face covering: No measures

The Swedes tended to use higher lockdowns against the “omicron wave” than they had done earlier in the epidemic. But since February 9^th, the only remaining restriction is a ban on some international arrivals.

When I went to the Swedish cases graph to cross-check against the lockdowns, I almost fell off my chair. Here’s what I saw:

Since almost exactly the time the omicron variant started spreading in Europe, the Swedish new cases curve has been an almost perfect Farr curve. I haven’t seen one of those since the very earliest days of the epidemic, in places like Iceland! The peak came about January 28^th, and inside two weeks the Swedes had unlocked domestic restrictions all but completely.

I think this Farr curve shape means two things. One, the Swedes had all but eradicated the earlier variants before omicron arrived. And two, in the last two months they have all but eradicated omicron too. Moreover, they have done all that with only 25% of the population having been diagnosed as cases; and with no lockdown at all once the new cases peak was passed, except banning arrivals from countries considered a danger.

Verdict: The Swedes have got the damn thing licked! Now, they’re waiting for the rest of us.

Switzerland

Date	Stringency	Measures
20220101	56.48	Schools: Some closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places
20220217	23.15	Schools: Open Workplaces: Recommended closed Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions

In lockdown terms, the recent Swiss experience seems comparable with the Belgian one. The consequences don’t seem to have been too bad, either. The first Swiss omicron peak of daily new cases was reached at the end of January; there was a trough in the last week of February, then a second and lower peak in mid-March, and cases are now headed firmly downwards. Verdict: A decent job on the run-in.

UK

Date	Stringency	Measures
20211215	48.61	Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional), Public transport: Recommended closed (Regional), Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required when with others (Regional)
20220120	46.76	Schools: Recommended closed (Regional)
20220127	42.13	Workplaces: Some closed (Regional) Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional)
20220211	39.35	International: Screening
20220215	29.63	Gatherings: No restrictions Public transport: Open
20220228	17.59	Workplaces: Recommended closed (Regional) Events: Allowed
20220318	14.81	International: No restrictions
20220321	12.96	Workplaces: Open

The UK’s recent performance looks like a phased unlock, with complications caused mainly by a degree of Scottish and Welsh reluctance to unlocking. The big new cases peak was hit on January 4^th, there was a trough around February 24^th, the second and lower peak was passed around March 23^rd, and cases are now headed downwards. The UK and Ireland are now the only countries in the 14 free from COVID restrictions on international arrivals. Verdict: A well handled run-in. Pity about the first 18 months of the epidemic.

Hospital Occupancy

Here is the COVID hospital occupancy per million for the 14 countries:

In some countries, notably France, COVID hospitalizations have risen close to their earlier peak values. Some other countries have rising hospital occupancy too; notably Ireland, the UK and Belgium. Germany, unfortunately, is not providing hospital occupancy data.

Here are the current hospital occupancies by COVID patients across Europe, expressed as a percentage of the country’s total hospital beds available:

The UK, Denmark and Ireland, with already falling cases, will not be too concerned about their positions in this league. Of the countries slowest to unlock (excluding Germany), Italy is fairly high, but Spain is very low, second from bottom of the 14.

Intensive Care Units

Here’s the ICU occupancy per million population:

This tangled mass of spaghetti shows that Austria, Belgium, Germany, France and Spain are the countries whose ICU occupancy per million has gone to a level similar to earlier peaks. But in most of the countries ICU occupancy by COVID patients is now on the decline, even where new cases are still on the up. There should, therefore, be no cause for further alarm on this score anywhere in the group of 14 countries. Not even in Spain or the Netherlands.

Here are the ICU occupancies, expressed as a percentage of available intensive care beds, for those countries which report them:

France, Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland are the four countries in the 14 whose ICU occupancy seems most potentially concerning. But all have been to considerably higher levels in earlier phases of the epidemic.

Deaths

Here are the daily deaths per million:

It’s been bad lately in several countries, notably Denmark (grey). But as I showed earlier, there is reason for optimism in most of the countries, except for Italy, Germany, and perhaps Spain and Austria.

Here is the list of current daily deaths per million around Europe:

The Danes and Swedes are on the home straight, and probably the Letzebuergesch too. The Germans and the Austrians, not so much.

And here are the cumulative totals of deaths per million:

The core group of 14 countries are mostly in the bottom half of this list. Belgium, Italy and the UK have been worst among them, in that order. Denmark has been the best by a distance, with the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden forming a chasing pack. Though Germany and Austria may find it hard to hold their positions, as they still look to have a long way to go to reach herd immunity.

Here is the same data looked at in terms of deaths per case, with the cases offset by 21 days:

It might seem paradoxical that the black line, way above the others recently, actually represents Sweden, the country closest to having the virus beaten. On reflection, though, this is because as new cases fall rapidly towards zero, there are still people in the hospitals who caught it many weeks ago, and there are still a few of these who are dying. This pattern, then, is the signature of death; death for the virus, that is. And about time too.

Finally, here’s the graph of excess mortality relative to the same time of year in a base period of 2015 to 2019:

The trend in excess mortality has been gradually downward ever since omicron became the dominant variant back in December 2021.

And here is the list of the last reported excess mortalities around Europe:

Currently, ten of the 14 – Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Ireland, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, France and the UK – are showing lower mortality than is normal at the time of year. Only Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Portugal are showing positive excess mortality.

To sum up

Based on each country’s performance against the virus over the last three months only, taking into account cases and lockdowns, I divided the 14 countries into seven categories as follows:

·       Awful: Italy, Germany.

·       Poor: Austria.

·       Get on with it, it’s time to do some unlocking: Spain, the Netherlands.

·       Wait and see: France, Portugal.

·       Doing OK: Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland.

·       Doing well: Denmark, Ireland, the UK.

·       Outstanding: Sweden. They’ve got the damn thing beaten!