Wednesday, 29 September 2021

COVID Follow-ups: Eastern Europe

This is the second of my follow-up reports on COVID-19 in individual countries. It covers Eastern Europe, which I have previously treated as two groups: “Eastern Europe (North)” and “Eastern Europe (South).” The data, on which I am basing all these reports, goes up to September 22nd 2021.

As in the first report, I will first show lists of susceptibles (that is, the percentage of the population exposed to the virus given certain assumptions in the efficacy of vaccines) and average and current stacked lockdowns, which add up the lockdown percentages for nine different kinds of lockdown. Then I will show each of the 23 countries individually, in alphabetical order.

Susceptibles

Here are the ordered lists of percentages of “susceptibles”:


Ukraine has done the least vaccinating, and Cyprus, Czechia and Lithuania the most.

Lockdowns

Here are the stacked bar charts of average lockdown levels:


Greece stands out as the heaviest locker-down, by some way. And it seems that the further north you go, the lighter the lockdowns tend to become.

Here are the current lockdown levels:


Albania

Albania Counts

Cases per Million: 57466 (rank 71/191)

Deaths per Million: 905 (rank 68/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.6% (rank 96/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 32.4% (rank 12/91)

Tests per 100000: 25654 (rank 78/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 18% (rank 17/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 25.3% (rank 91/191)

People Vaccinated: 31.8% (rank 102/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 59% (rank 85/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 24.1% (rank 57/173)

Albania Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 282 (rank 31/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.03 (rank 69/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.19 (rank 57/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.73% (rank 120/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -6.51% (rank 81/91)

Current Susceptibles: 76.52% (rank 95/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 38% (rank 126/174)

The Albanians have had a three-peak epidemic so far. Cases per million are fairly low, deaths per case so far low to middling, and average excess mortality very high. The high cumulative cases per test suggests a shortage of test kits. Lockdowns have been above average for the area, and vaccination activity low to middling for the area. For the last month, however, the Albanians seem to have been holding off the latest (delta) variant, even though the lockdown stringency is only 38%. Verdict: Not an impressive performance, but they may have missed many cases, so may be closer to herd immunity than expected.

Belarus

Belarus Counts

Cases per Million: 55309 (rank 74/191)

Deaths per Million: 428 (rank 95/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.8% (rank 157/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 22.8% (rank 25/91)

Tests per 100000: 87250 (rank 42/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 6.3% (rank 81/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 15.4% (rank 114/191)

People Vaccinated: 18.6% (rank 124/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 34.4% (rank 165/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 14.6% (rank 123/173)

Belarus Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 208 (rank 40/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.07 (rank 56/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 1.33 (rank 70/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.85% (rank 110/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 1.8% (rank 61/91)

Current Susceptibles: 83.85% (rank 79/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 19.4% (rank 167/174)

The Belarussians closed their borders early, and managed to miss the worst of the first wave. But the second wave was bigger, and the third is still on the way up. Deaths per million are rather low, considering the high average excess mortality; they may, perhaps, have classified many deaths with COVID present as being from co-morbidities, where other countries may have classified them as COVID deaths. But the testing numbers look good, and lockdowns have been consistently very low. If I can believe their numbers (and I don’t see any obvious evidence of hanky-panky), then the Belarussians have done well so far with a light lockdown strategy.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina Counts

Cases per Million: 70281 (rank 58/191)

Deaths per Million: 3172 (rank 2/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 4.5% (rank 14/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 28.6% (rank 18/91)

Tests per 100000: 36650 (rank 70/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 19% (rank 14/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 13.1% (rank 120/191)

People Vaccinated: 19.4% (rank 122/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 49.4% (rank 134/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 13.6% (rank 133/173)

Bosnia and Herzegovina Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 237 (rank 35/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.26 (rank 25/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 9.72 (rank 10/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 6% (rank 17/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 18.5% (rank 31/91)

Current Susceptibles: 82.41% (rank 85/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 35.2% (rank 135/174)

Deaths per million are now second worst in the world, which tallies with the high excess mortality. Shortages of test kits may well have led to under-recording of cases per million. Lockdowns have been quite light for the area. Not much vaccination activity compared with Western Europe. Cases are still increasing towards a third peak. Verdict: The Bosnians (not to mention the Herzegovinians) aren’t out of the wood yet.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria Counts

Cases per Million: 70699 (rank 57/191)

Deaths per Million: 2936 (rank 6/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 4.2% (rank 15/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 21.1% (rank 29/91)

Tests per 100000: 67093 (rank 54/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 10.5% (rank 48/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 18.5% (rank 103/191)

People Vaccinated: 15.8% (rank 129/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 48.2% (rank 138/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 9.8% (rank 155/173)

Bulgaria Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 216 (rank 39/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.15 (rank 41/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 9.16 (rank 11/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 4.1% (rank 27/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 25.37% (rank 24/91)

Current Susceptibles: 82.06% (rank 87/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 20.4% (rank 166/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 662.9 (rank 1/30) (8.9% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 55.1 (rank 2/26)

The Bulgarian epidemic profile is very like the Bosnian one, even though they are not neighbours. Though here, it is possible that the third wave may be peaking or about to peak, as in Albania. The hospitals and ICUs are obviously badly stretched at the moment. Lockdowns less harsh than most other countries in Eastern Europe. Verdict: Still a way to go.

Croatia

Croatia Counts

Cases per Million: 96798 (rank 29/191)

Deaths per Million: 2092 (rank 19/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.2% (rank 66/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 13.3% (rank 44/91)

Tests per 100000: 67417 (rank 52/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 14.4% (rank 33/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 40.9% (rank 62/191)

People Vaccinated: 43.7% (rank 83/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 48% (rank 139/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 11.5% (rank 146/173)

Croatia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 287 (rank 30/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.27 (rank 22/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.66 (rank 42/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.99% (rank 62/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -6.01% (rank 80/91)

Current Susceptibles: 63.33% (rank 132/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 33.8% (rank 140/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 114.9 (rank 10/30) (2.1% full)

Another three-peak profile, like the Bosnians and Bulgarians. The big differences here are in the significantly lower deaths per case than the other two, and the significantly higher vaccinations. Lockdowns similar to Bulgaria. Verdict: We’ll have to wait and see, but they have controlled deaths significantly better than Bosnia or Bulgaria.

Cyprus

Cyprus Counts

Cases per Million: 132328 (rank 11/191)

Deaths per Million: 617 (rank 84/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.5% (rank 174/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 1% (rank 78/91)

Tests per 100000: 1435240 (rank 1/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 0.9% (rank 118/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 60.9% (rank 31/191)

People Vaccinated: 66.3% (rank 37/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 63.4% (rank 60/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 18.4% (rank 94/173)

Cyprus Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 163 (rank 54/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.63 (rank 4/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.25 (rank 54/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.76% (rank 117/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -31.13% (rank 91/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.94% (rank 171/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 43.5% (rank 103/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 126.1 (rank 8/30) (3.7% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 22.5 (rank 8/26)

Another three-peak epidemic, as seems usual for the area; but what a difference! High cases per million, low deaths per million, excess mortality almost trivial. The third peak shows the characteristic “integral sign” of the delta variant, so they’re hopefully over that hump now. Highest vaccinator in the area. But lockdowns have been high for the area, comparable with Western Europe. Verdict: They might have got away with locking down a bit less hard, but otherwise they seem to have got it as near right as anyone.

Czechia

Czechia Counts

Cases per Million: 157344 (rank 5/191)

Deaths per Million: 2839 (rank 7/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.8% (rank 78/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 20.1% (rank 31/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 55% (rank 41/191)

People Vaccinated: 56.4% (rank 62/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 53.7% (rank 110/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 17.8% (rank 97/173)

Czechia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 41 (rank 106/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.2 (rank 33/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.39 (rank 108/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.08% (rank 59/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -7.47% (rank 82/91)

Current Susceptibles: 48.44% (rank 168/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 32.4% (rank 142/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 11.9 (rank 30/30) (0.2% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 1.9 (rank 25/26) (1.6% full)

Very high cases and deaths per million, high average excess mortality. Strong vaccination program. Lockdowns generally mid-table for the area. No testing data provided – maybe lack of test kits could account for the relatively high deaths per case? But the really important bit is at the far right of the graph. Since early June, new cases have been low and almost flat. And this is the period, during which the delta variant arrived in other countries in the area! I suspect they’re as close to herd immunity as anyone. Verdict: The Czechs lost a lot of people, but from here on they’re looking in as good shape as anyone.

Estonia

Estonia Counts

Cases per Million: 114166 (rank 18/191)

Deaths per Million: 1007 (rank 62/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.9% (rank 151/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 7.9% (rank 59/91)

Tests per 100000: 141257 (rank 28/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 8% (rank 63/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 44.2% (rank 56/191)

People Vaccinated: 56.4% (rank 61/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 40.6% (rank 156/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 10.7% (rank 150/173)

Estonia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 368 (rank 22/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.17 (rank 38/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.16 (rank 58/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.82% (rank 111/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 14.25% (rank 35/91)

Current Susceptibles: 56.74% (rank 147/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 28.7% (rank 155/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 135.8 (rank 6/30) (2.9% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 11.3 (rank 19/26) (7.8% full)

The Estonian epidemic data looks almost as if it is a Nordic country! (Which, culturally, it nearly is). Low deaths per million and deaths per case. Strong testing, quite light lockdowns. But cases and deaths are rising now, albeit fairly slowly. It looks to me as if they’re going for herd immunity, like the UK. Verdict: If they can get over this hump without too much damage, I think they’ll probably be fine.

Greece

Greece Counts

Cases per Million: 61608 (rank 65/191)

Deaths per Million: 1405 (rank 42/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.3% (rank 57/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 7.9% (rank 60/91)

Tests per 100000: 179497 (rank 18/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 3.4% (rank 106/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 57.3% (rank 38/191)

People Vaccinated: 61.4% (rank 54/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 66.4% (rank 43/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 21% (rank 75/173)

Greece Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 223 (rank 37/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.98 (rank 84/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 3.64 (rank 34/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.27% (rank 87/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 60.86% (rank 6/91)

Current Susceptibles: 56.2% (rank 148/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 60.7% (rank 43/174)

The Greeks have suffered stringent lockdowns, meaning low cases per million. But deaths per case have been very poor; even though there has been no lack of test kits. Greece has been one of the more active vaccinators. But the current state of things is very bad. That current excess mortality is huge! When all is said and done, it may turn out that the Greeks lost more than they gained through those draconian lockdowns; and not just economically.

Hungary

Hungary Counts

Cases per Million: 85012 (rank 39/191)

Deaths per Million: 3129 (rank 3/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 3.7% (rank 19/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 13.3% (rank 43/91)

Tests per 100000: 65964 (rank 55/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 12.9% (rank 37/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 57.8% (rank 37/191)

People Vaccinated: 60.8% (rank 57/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 56.5% (rank 100/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 20% (rank 83/173)

Hungary Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 42 (rank 104/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.34 (rank 14/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.43 (rank 103/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.43% (rank 53/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -3.87% (rank 77/91)

Current Susceptibles: 53.16% (rank 159/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 27.8% (rank 157/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 22.8 (rank 24/30) (0.3% full)

The Hungarians could almost ignore the first wave; but the next two waves gave them a very nasty experience. Third highest deaths per million in the world, but cases per million only moderate. It seems they tried to keep out the virus by closing the borders from September to May; but they did that too late, as the second-wave variant was already in the country. High cases per test and deaths per case seem to indicate that lack of test kits has been (and still is) a problem. Lockdowns have been middling for the area, and Hungary is one of the more active vaccinators. Apart from the high deaths per case, Hungary’s profile now looks much like Czechia’s; though cases are now increasing, perhaps due to the delta variant. Verdict: A nightmare, but the worst of the worst may well be over now.

Kosovo

Kosovo Counts

Cases per Million: 82518 (rank 41/191)

Deaths per Million: 1509 (rank 38/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.8% (rank 77/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 31.1% (rank 14/91)

Tests per 100000: 59994 (rank 58/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 13.7% (rank 35/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 22% (rank 96/191)

People Vaccinated: 37.4% (rank 91/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 63% (rank 62/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 23.3% (rank 63/173)

Kosovo Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 108 (rank 70/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.63 (rank 162/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 5.32 (rank 22/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.6% (rank 129/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 45.17% (rank 12/91)

Current Susceptibles: 75.68% (rank 101/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 32.4% (rank 142/174)

Very high average excess mortality, and even higher currently; suggesting that COVID deaths may have been undercounted. The recent peak clearly shows the signature of the delta variant; but they seem to have got over it, so there’s hope. High cumulative cases per test may indicate that shortage of test kits has been a problem. Second highest average lockdowns in the region. Low vaccination activity compared with others in the region. Verdict: Not good, and may actually be worse than it looks if COVID deaths have been undercounted.

Latvia

Latvia Counts

Cases per Million: 81372 (rank 43/191)

Deaths per Million: 1427 (rank 41/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.8% (rank 81/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 8.6% (rank 57/91)

Tests per 100000: 178874 (rank 19/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 4.2% (rank 98/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 43.2% (rank 58/191)

People Vaccinated: 47.4% (rank 74/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 50.5% (rank 130/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 16.4% (rank 107/173)

Latvia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 263 (rank 34/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.28 (rank 20/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.83 (rank 39/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.36% (rank 55/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 1.76% (rank 62/91)

Current Susceptibles: 63.3% (rank 133/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 38% (rank 126/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 125.3 (rank 9/30) (2.3% full)

Like its neighbour Estonia, Latvia has locked down relatively lightly for the area. Like Estonia, cases are currently on an upward trend, presumably due to the delta variant. But Latvia hasn’t done as well as Estonia in terms of deaths per million or deaths per case. Test figures at first sight look OK, but cases per test are higher than you would expect from that many tests. Latvia is mid-table in vaccinations. Verdict: We’ll have to see how the next peak turns out.

Lithuania

Lithuania Counts

Cases per Million: 118698 (rank 15/191)

Deaths per Million: 1803 (rank 28/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.5% (rank 103/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 18.9% (rank 36/91)

Tests per 100000: 181710 (rank 16/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 6.4% (rank 79/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 60% (rank 33/191)

People Vaccinated: 63.9% (rank 43/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 49.7% (rank 133/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 18.9% (rank 87/173)

Lithuania Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 432 (rank 20/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.24 (rank 28/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 5.79 (rank 18/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.62% (rank 50/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 23.47% (rank 26/91)

Current Susceptibles: 48.91% (rank 165/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 30.6% (rank 147/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 282.9 (rank 2/30) (4.3% full)

The Lithuanian epidemic profile is quite like Latvia, except cases and deaths per million, and excess mortality, are higher. Third from the top in vaccinations; mid-table in lockdowns, but currently in a relatively light one. Verdict: Like Latvia, we’ll have to wait and see. The trio of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could provide an interesting test of the strategy of “letting the virus rip” in order to reach herd immunity.

Moldova

Moldova Counts

Cases per Million: 70904 (rank 56/191)

Deaths per Million: 1648 (rank 34/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.3% (rank 56/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 22.1% (rank 27/91)

Tests per 100000: 42314 (rank 67/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 16.6% (rank 24/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 18.7% (rank 101/191)

People Vaccinated: 14.2% (rank 134/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 60.4% (rank 77/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 26.7% (rank 44/173)

Moldova Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 265 (rank 32/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.38 (rank 12/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.59 (rank 43/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 3.19% (rank 41/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 12.17% (rank 37/91)

Current Susceptibles: 82.48% (rank 83/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 29.6% (rank 149/174)

Quite high lockdowns, higher yet in full lockdowns. Not many cases per million, quite high deaths per case and high excess mortality. Low vaccination numbers. Unlike countries like Estonia and Latvia, I’m not sure they’re anywhere near the end-game yet. Verdict: I fear this one may have a way to run.

Montenegro

Montenegro Counts

Cases per Million: 203636 (rank 2/191)

Deaths per Million: 2984 (rank 5/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.5% (rank 106/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 24% (rank 23/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 32.3% (rank 75/191)

People Vaccinated: 36.5% (rank 94/191)

Montenegro Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 941 (rank 3/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.03 (rank 69/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 12.74 (rank 5/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.33% (rank 83/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 56.72% (rank 7/91)

Current Susceptibles: 58.52% (rank 144/191)

Ouch! The Montenegrins dealt very well with the first wave, but since then there have been nothing but problems. Second in the world in cumulative cases per million, third in current cases per million, fifth in cumulative deaths per million, seventh in current excess mortality. They haven’t been providing either testing or lockdown data, so it’s hard to work out the reasons behind the problems; though lack of test kits seems unlikely to be one of them. Vaccinations are higher than some. Verdict: They’re in trouble, and it isn’t over yet.

North Macedonia

North Macedonia Counts

Cases per Million: 90323 (rank 34/191)

Deaths per Million: 3126 (rank 4/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 3.5% (rank 26/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 34.9% (rank 9/91)

Tests per 100000: 60091 (rank 57/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 14.9% (rank 30/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 32.1% (rank 77/191)

People Vaccinated: 36.9% (rank 92/191)

North Macedonia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 221 (rank 38/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.89 (rank 109/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 11.8 (rank 6/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.95% (rank 44/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 26.37% (rank 23/91)

Current Susceptibles: 70.27% (rank 119/191)

Ouch again! In many ways, similar to Montenegro. Fourth in the world in deaths per million, ninth in average excess mortality. High deaths per case and cases per test suggest test kit shortages have been a problem; maybe this is why Montenegro shows so many more cases per million than North Macedonia. Vaccinations are low. No lockdown data provided. Verdict: We don’t know how many cases they have missed, but they’re in trouble. The race (to the bottom?) between North Macedonia and Montenegro will be interesting.

Poland

Poland Counts

Cases per Million: 76723 (rank 48/191)

Deaths per Million: 1998 (rank 22/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.6% (rank 46/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 19.5% (rank 35/91)

Tests per 100000: 53159 (rank 61/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 14.4% (rank 32/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 50.9% (rank 49/191)

People Vaccinated: 51.9% (rank 67/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 58.1% (rank 87/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 18.8% (rank 88/173)

Poland Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 18 (rank 125/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.3 (rank 18/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.26 (rank 120/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 3.91% (rank 32/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -11.04% (rank 85/91)

Current Susceptibles: 59.26% (rank 142/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 38.9% (rank 121/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 17.9 (rank 27/30) (0.3% full)

Cases per million low, probably due to relatively high lockdowns. High cases per test suggest shortages of test kits. Deaths per million higher than many in this group; comparable with Lithuania. Daily cases per million now are very low, but rising. Vaccinations are higher than some in the area. I see no evidence that the delta variant has yet had a significant impact in Poland; which is concerning if you compare the profile with Lithuania or Latvia, or even Moldova. Verdict: The Poles have been through a lot of bad stuff already, and I suspect there may be more where that came from.

Romania

Romania Counts

Cases per Million: 60953 (rank 67/191)

Deaths per Million: 1874 (rank 25/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 3.1% (rank 33/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 16.1% (rank 37/91)

Tests per 100000: 49121 (rank 63/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 12.3% (rank 39/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 27.5% (rank 86/191)

People Vaccinated: 28.1% (rank 107/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 57.8% (rank 91/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 19.7% (rank 85/173)

Romania Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 264 (rank 33/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.6 (rank 5/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 4.75 (rank 25/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 8.79% (rank 10/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 1.2% (rank 64/91)

Current Susceptibles: 76.09% (rank 99/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 50% (rank 88/174)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 15.3 (rank 13/26)

I don’t like those numbers at all, at all. Despite high average lockdowns for the area, Romanian cases per million may have been understated, because it looks as if testing has been a problem. The delta variant is in there, and right now it looks pretty much out of control. Hopefully, as it has in Western Europe, it will prove less lethal than earlier variants. Verdict: There’s a long way to go here, too.

Russia

Russia Counts

Cases per Million: 49534 (rank 78/191)

Deaths per Million: 1350 (rank 46/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.7% (rank 42/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 22.4% (rank 26/91)

Tests per 100000: 128398 (rank 31/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 3.8% (rank 100/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 27.8% (rank 85/191)

People Vaccinated: 32% (rank 101/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 48.8% (rank 135/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 8.3% (rank 160/173)

Russia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 133 (rank 60/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.04 (rank 64/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 5.35 (rank 21/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 4.24% (rank 26/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 50.52% (rank 10/91)

Current Susceptibles: 76.38% (rank 97/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.3% (rank 76/174)

For a country the size of Russia, this epidemic was always going to be a long, long haul. Lockdowns have been relatively light for most of the epidemic; showing probably that the Russians understand they’re in for a long haul. Excess mortality is not good. I can’t see evidence of anything the Russians have actually done wrong, so this may just be a result of the nature of the beast. The delta variant seems to have hit them early, way back in June. Verdict: Still a long way to go.

Serbia

Serbia Counts

Cases per Million: 130286 (rank 12/191)

Deaths per Million: 1159 (rank 54/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.9% (rank 150/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 19.8% (rank 34/91)

Tests per 100000: 79474 (rank 46/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 16% (rank 26/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 42% (rank 61/191)

People Vaccinated: 44.1% (rank 81/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 52.9% (rank 117/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 22.6% (rank 70/173)

Serbia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 1008 (rank 2/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.27 (rank 22/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 5.29 (rank 23/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.43% (rank 79/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 6.71% (rank 46/91)

Current Susceptibles: 59.34% (rank 141/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 36.1% (rank 133/174)

The average excess mortality figure suggests that deaths per million may well have been understated. Cumulative cases per million are quite high, and deaths per case low. Lockdown stringencies have been lower than some in the area, but the Serbs do seem to like their full lockdowns. The delta variant is currently at a peak, but they aren’t locking down hard; perhaps they think they have the virus all but beaten, like the Cypriots? Verdict: One to watch. Once they get over the next hump, I think they may be OK.

Slovakia

Slovakia Counts

Cases per Million: 74163 (rank 51/191)

Deaths per Million: 2305 (rank 12/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 3.1% (rank 31/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 20.7% (rank 30/91)

Tests per 100000: 761165 (rank 4/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 1% (rank 117/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 40.8% (rank 64/191)

People Vaccinated: 44.3% (rank 80/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 55.1% (rank 107/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 17.6% (rank 99/173)

Slovakia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 131 (rank 61/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.56 (rank 7/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.6 (rank 95/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 2.75% (rank 49/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -25.02% (rank 89/91)

Current Susceptibles: 65.2% (rank 127/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 30.6% (rank 147/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 26.2 (rank 22/30) (0.4% full)

Until quite recently, Slovakia had had an epidemic profile similar to its neighbour Czechia, except with far less recorded cases per million, higher deaths per case, and less vaccinations. But just recently, the signature of the dreaded delta variant has appeared in Slovakia. If that low cases per million count is accurate, they may need to start locking down again before too long; and then they will be a long way behind Czechia in the race for herd immunity. Verdict: If they can hold their nerve and get over the next hump without locking down, I think they should probably be OK. Otherwise, not.

Slovenia

Slovenia Counts

Cases per Million: 137713 (rank 10/191)

Deaths per Million: 2172 (rank 16/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.6% (rank 95/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 11.2% (rank 47/91)

Tests per 100000: 73879 (rank 49/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 18.5% (rank 15/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 46.4% (rank 54/191)

People Vaccinated: 52.3% (rank 66/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 54% (rank 109/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 23.3% (rank 64/173)

Slovenia Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 485 (rank 14/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.27 (rank 22/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.54 (rank 47/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.12% (rank 97/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -14.6% (rank 87/91)

Current Susceptibles: 56.07% (rank 151/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 35.2% (rank 135/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 140.5 (rank 5/30) (3.1% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 33.7 (rank 3/26) (52.6% full)

High cases per million, high deaths per million, high cases per test. The Slovenian epidemic was comparable with Italy or the UK until June, but now they have been hit by the delta variant. Cumulative cases per test are high, suggesting shortages of test kits. Vaccinations are lower than in Western Europe. Their ICUs are getting uncomfortably full – a problem which also occurred in Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and UK. Verdict: This one could go either way from here. If they need to lock down to keep ICU occupancy in bounds, they may be in trouble.

Ukraine

Ukraine Counts

Cases per Million: 56792 (rank 72/191)

Deaths per Million: 1352 (rank 45/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.4% (rank 55/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 11.5% (rank 46/91)

Tests per 100000: 28876 (rank 76/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 19.7% (rank 12/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 11.8% (rank 122/191)

People Vaccinated: 14.5% (rank 133/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 60.9% (rank 73/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 15.8% (rank 112/173)

Ukraine Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 129 (rank 63/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.4 (rank 11/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.4 (rank 50/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 4.81% (rank 24/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 3.33% (rank 56/91)

Current Susceptibles: 86.67% (rank 72/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 50.9% (rank 83/174)

High lockdowns for the area, so low cases per million. It looks like they have had test kit shortages. The delta variant has reached them, and is now “on the march.” Verdict: The prognosis is not good; unless the delta variant turns out to be a lot less lethal than its forbears.

To sum up

I didn’t do a summary at the end of the Western European review, so these tentative conclusions will cover the whole of Europe.

·       While there are sometimes patterns in common between countries in the same geographical area, almost every country’s experience has been different in one way or another.

·       Average excess mortality, and cumulative deaths per million, tend to increase as you go further east.

·       For similar average excess mortalities, some countries (e.g. Slovakia) are reporting a high COVID deaths per million, while others (Belarus, Kosovo, Serbia) report far lower deaths per million. This may reflect differing policies on what is counted as a COVID death.

·       Lack of test kits, shown up by high cases per test, often goes with high deaths per million. The converse, that a high level of testing tends to give lower deaths per million, is not always true; as for example in the UK.

·       Lockdowns tend to be lighter towards the north, heavier towards the south.

·       Countries which have maintained heavy lockdowns, such as Greece, can find themselves left with a long way to go to reach herd immunity. On the other hand, countries which have kept lighter lockdowns, like Bosnia and Herzegovina, can lose too many people too quickly. It’s a fine balance.

·       Some countries which have done relatively well against the virus: Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, perhaps Switzerland.

·       Some countries which I suspect have got their strategies wrong: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Romania, Ukraine.

·       Some countries which have got themselves into an ugly mess: Montenegro, North Macedonia.

·       Some countries which got themselves into a mess, but “got up off the ropes” and are now in relatively good shape: Belgium, Czechia, Hungary, San Marino.

·       Some “gamblers” now seeking to beat the virus by going all-out for herd immunity: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, UK, perhaps Slovakia and Slovenia too.

·       The most concerning European countries from today’s perspective: Moldova, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, perhaps Romania.

 

Monday, 27 September 2021

COVID Follow-ups: Western Europe

This is the first of my follow-up reports on COVID-19 in individual countries. The list of countries I had selected for follow-up was so large, that I decided to do things a different way. So, I put some more automation into my “world supergroup” workbook that summarizes the data for the 191 reporting countries. That workbook can now produce textual summaries of the status of the epidemic in each country. These summaries are of two types. The first, Counts, gives data on the epidemic as a whole to date in a country, such as cases per million and deaths per million. The second, Current Status, gives a snapshot of the current state of the epidemic in the country, such as daily cases and deaths per million.

Armed with this new tool, I can now follow-up on every reporting country in the world. For each country, I will show the basic graph of cases and deaths for the country, together with the two summaries, and any general comments on the country’s handling of the epidemic. Since a country’s performance can only be fully understood in the context of its policies on vaccinations and lockdowns, I will preface the detailed reports with information on these measures. For vaccinations, I will show the lists of percentages of “susceptibles,” that is, those still liable to catch the virus, among the population in each country. The calculation is based on the assumptions that two jabs are 65% effective and one jab half that, and the number of people who have already been cases, and who get the virus a second time, is negligible. For lockdowns, I will show the lockdown percentages for each of the 9 types of lockdown, stacked up into single bars so that the total lies between 0% and 900%. Note: these are not the same as average lockdown stringencies, since the Blavatnik stringency measure does not include face coverings.

The data, on which I am basing these reports, goes up to September 22nd 2021. Since Europe as a whole (46 countries) is too big to cover in a single report, I decided to divide it into two parts. This report covers Western Europe; that is, the groups of countries I call “Europe 14” and “Rest of Western Europe.”

Susceptibles

Here are the ordered lists of percentages of “susceptibles”:


Luxembourg has done the least vaccinating, and Portugal the most; though San Marino runs it close. The Vatican shows as an outlier, because it is not supplying any vaccinations data.

Lockdowns

Here are the stacked bar charts of average lockdown levels:


It’s noticeable that the top four countries in average lockdowns are all Catholic countries. Make of that what you will.

Here are the current lockdown levels:


Andorra

Andorra Counts

Cases per Million: 195892 (rank 3/191)

Deaths per Million: 1681 (rank 33/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.9% (rank 154/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 31.5% (rank 13/91)

Tests per 100000: 275341 (rank 12/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 7.1% (rank 73/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 54.1% (rank 43/191)

People Vaccinated: 66.7% (rank 34/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 48.5% (rank 137/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 16% (rank 110/173)

Andorra Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 83 (rank 80/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.14 (rank 43/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 160/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0% (rank 160/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 31.41% (rank 20/91)

Current Susceptibles: 41.15% (rank 184/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 51.9% (rank 79/174)

Andorra is a small territory in the Pyrenees, sandwiched between France and Spain. The virus has hit it particularly hard, as shown by the cases per million, almost 20% of the population. Each cases peak has been lower than the previous one, deaths per case have been relatively good, and lockdowns have been generally milder than in the larger European countries. But the virus still won’t quite lie down; and excess mortality is quite high. Verdict: Some have done an awful lot worse.

Austria

Austria Counts

Cases per Million: 80581 (rank 44/191)

Deaths per Million: 1209 (rank 52/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.5% (rank 104/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 8.8% (rank 55/91)

Tests per 100000: 920514 (rank 2/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 0.9% (rank 121/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 59.1% (rank 34/191)

People Vaccinated: 62.5% (rank 49/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 60.9% (rank 72/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 15.4% (rank 115/173)

Austria Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 202 (rank 41/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.05 (rank 63/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 1.22 (rank 72/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.77% (rank 116/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 7.5% (rank 45/91)

Current Susceptibles: 53% (rank 160/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 60.2% (rank 44/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 58.4 (rank 18/30) (0.8% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 20.1 (rank 9/26) (9.2% full)

The Austrians did very well against the first wave of the virus, but seemed to lose their way against the second. They have done an enormous amount of testing, quite a lot of vaccinating, and a middling amount of locking down, though recent lockdowns are harsher than average. Deaths per million and excess mortality are both lower than many other European countries. Verdict: Not the best, but by no means the worst.

Belgium

Belgium Counts

Cases per Million: 105674 (rank 24/191)

Deaths per Million: 2195 (rank 14/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.1% (rank 70/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 10.1% (rank 54/91)

Tests per 100000: 168146 (rank 22/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 6.2% (rank 82/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 71.6% (rank 13/191)

People Vaccinated: 73.4% (rank 18/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 56.1% (rank 103/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 24.2% (rank 56/173)

Belgium Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 173 (rank 50/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.09 (rank 51/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.58 (rank 97/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.33% (rank 144/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -3.95% (rank 78/91)

Current Susceptibles: 42.71% (rank 181/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 43.1% (rank 107/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 58.5 (rank 17/30) (1% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 18.7 (rank 11/26) (11.7% full)

The Belgians were the hardest hit of all by the second wave, and they must have known it. Since the new year, cases have been relatively well under control. Lockdowns have been generally lower than other countries in the area. Excess mortality is now negative. Verdict: They went through a nasty period late in 2020, but otherwise they have controlled the virus relatively well.

Denmark

Denmark Counts

Cases per Million: 61447 (rank 66/191)

Deaths per Million: 453 (rank 94/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.7% (rank 159/191)

Average Excess Mortality: -0.4% (rank 80/91)

Tests per 100000: 700859 (rank 5/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 0.9% (rank 120/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 74.5% (rank 8/191)

People Vaccinated: 76.4% (rank 10/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 52.2% (rank 120/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 15.8% (rank 111/173)

Denmark Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 56 (rank 93/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.72 (rank 144/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.42 (rank 104/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.28% (rank 146/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 4.48% (rank 54/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.22% (rank 174/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 24.1% (rank 164/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 21.5 (rank 25/30) (0.9% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 5.5 (rank 21/26) (8.2% full)

Why have the Danes done so much better than anyone else in mainland Europe? Relatively low lockdowns, low cases and deaths per million, average excess mortality negative throughout the epidemic! Quite strong vaccinations. No national face covering mandate, until just recently; wonder why they did that? And no big panics since the second wave was scotched before Christmas. Verdict: Skål! (But you can’t drink with a face mask on).

Finland

Finland Counts

Cases per Million: 24799 (rank 106/191)

Deaths per Million: 191 (rank 113/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.8% (rank 158/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 1.5% (rank 75/91)

Tests per 100000: 125292 (rank 32/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 2% (rank 113/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 58.7% (rank 36/191)

People Vaccinated: 73.9% (rank 16/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 44.7% (rank 148/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 4.9% (rank 168/173)

Finland Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 71 (rank 87/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.77 (rank 136/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.28 (rank 116/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.26% (rank 150/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 3.23% (rank 57/91)

Current Susceptibles: 55.91% (rank 153/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 36.6% (rank 132/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 17.1 (rank 29/30) (0.5% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 4 (rank 23/26) (6.5% full)

Well done the Finns! Very low cases per million, even lower deaths per million. Excess mortality within the “normal” range. Second lowest average lockdowns in Western Europe. No national face mask mandates at all. Something in Nordic culture must help them against this virus. Verdict: Very good, under the circumstances.

France

France Counts

Cases per Million: 104513 (rank 26/191)

Deaths per Million: 1731 (rank 32/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.7% (rank 90/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 7% (rank 63/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 63.7% (rank 20/191)

People Vaccinated: 73.6% (rank 17/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 59.1% (rank 84/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 23.4% (rank 61/173)

France Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 113 (rank 68/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.76 (rank 138/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 1.08 (rank 75/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.46% (rank 138/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -0.12% (rank 68/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.62% (rank 172/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 66.7% (rank 29/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 148.2 (rank 4/30) (2.5% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 31.5 (rank 4/26) (27.2% full)

The French have been overall the least heavily locked down among the big Catholic countries; though they do seem to like to use full lockdowns, and they are under heavy lockdown now. In the middle of the league on vaccinations. Verdict: About how you’d expect the French to do.

Germany

Germany Counts

Cases per Million: 49742 (rank 76/191)

Deaths per Million: 1111 (rank 56/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.2% (rank 59/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 3.3% (rank 70/91)

Tests per 100000: 86175 (rank 44/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 5.7% (rank 87/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 62.6% (rank 26/191)

People Vaccinated: 66.6% (rank 35/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 63% (rank 61/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 23.3% (rank 62/173)

Germany Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 99 (rank 73/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1 (rank 79/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.68 (rank 93/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.59% (rank 131/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 4.29% (rank 55/91)

Current Susceptibles: 53.77% (rank 157/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 56.5% (rank 58/174)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 17.2 (rank 12/26) (4.4% full)

Low cases per million, and quite low deaths per million, for the area. Excess mortality low. Heavier lockdowns than many. Vaccinations not as high as you would expect from the usually efficient Germans. Verdict: Doing OK so far, given the circumstances; but due to strong early control on cases, they may find themselves with a long haul to reach herd immunity.

Iceland

Iceland Counts

Cases per Million: 33661 (rank 94/191)

Deaths per Million: 96 (rank 136/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.3% (rank 179/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 1.1% (rank 77/91)

Tests per 100000: 180859 (rank 17/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 1.8% (rank 115/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 79.9% (rank 4/191)

People Vaccinated: 81.9% (rank 3/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 43.8% (rank 151/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 7.6% (rank 162/173)

Iceland Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 92 (rank 76/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.85 (rank 118/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 160/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0% (rank 160/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 18.99% (rank 30/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.07% (rank 175/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 41.7% (rank 110/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 17.5 (rank 28/30) (0.6% full)

Icelandic deaths per million, deaths per case and excess mortality are outstanding. The “Nordic factor” strikes again! The way they scotched the first wave was exemplary; almost a perfect Farr curve. The second and third weren’t bad, either. They have got the job done so far – with the lowest average lockdowns in Europe! Very strong on vaccinations, too. It may be a long way from here to herd immunity, though. Verdict: As near exemplary as you’re going to get.

Ireland

Ireland Counts

Cases per Million: 76134 (rank 49/191)

Deaths per Million: 1045 (rank 58/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.4% (rank 111/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 2.5% (rank 73/91)

Tests per 100000: 144238 (rank 27/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 5.2% (rank 90/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 72.3% (rank 11/191)

People Vaccinated: 75.3% (rank 14/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 67% (rank 41/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 29.1% (rank 31/173)

Ireland Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 339 (rank 26/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.91 (rank 105/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.86 (rank 84/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.25% (rank 151/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -1.56% (rank 73/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.4% (rank 173/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 48.2% (rank 93/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 63.2 (rank 15/30) (2.1% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 11.8 (rank 17/26) (18.2% full)

The Irish have consistently been locked down harder than anyone else in Western Europe except the Italians. It seems to have worked in its own terms, so far; but the price is high. And cases even now are well above the WHO’s “endemic” threshold! Verdict: Could (and should) have treated the people better.

Italy

Italy Counts

Cases per Million: 76960 (rank 47/191)

Deaths per Million: 2162 (rank 17/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 2.8% (rank 38/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 15.3% (rank 38/91)

Tests per 100000: 148127 (rank 25/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 5.2% (rank 91/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 65.5% (rank 17/191)

People Vaccinated: 73.3% (rank 19/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 68.4% (rank 33/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 27% (rank 41/173)

Italy Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 66 (rank 89/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.86 (rank 115/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.92 (rank 80/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.88% (rank 109/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -0.82% (rank 70/91)

Current Susceptibles: 48.41% (rank 169/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 69% (rank 26/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 77.4 (rank 14/30) (2.4% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 9.3 (rank 20/26) (7.4% full)

Heaviest lockdowns in Western Europe, yet in the world top 20 in deaths per million. And cases per million aren’t that high! Three big, bad bloopers right there. They seem to be reasonably on top of the virus right now, but no sign of relaxing any lockdowns. Verdict: The Italians should demand their money back.

Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein Counts

Cases per Million: 89638 (rank 35/191)

Deaths per Million: 1568 (rank 37/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.7% (rank 83/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 10.6% (rank 53/91)

Tests per 100000: 171731 (rank 21/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 5.2% (rank 92/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 56.9% (rank 39/191)

People Vaccinated: 62.5% (rank 50/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 39.4% (rank 160/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 14.1% (rank 129/173)

Liechtenstein Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 131 (rank 62/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.02 (rank 75/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 160/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0% (rank 160/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -31.03% (rank 90/91)

Current Susceptibles: 54.01% (rank 156/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 25% (rank 161/174)

Lowest average lockdown stringency outside the Nordics. Cases per million reasonable, deaths per million not great. Current excess mortality is very low indeed. They seem to think they now have the virus beaten. I hope they have! Verdict: A really good try so far.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg Counts

Cases per Million: 122165 (rank 14/191)

Deaths per Million: 1315 (rank 48/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.1% (rank 138/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 3.1% (rank 71/91)

Tests per 100000: 551417 (rank 6/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 2.2% (rank 112/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 62.9% (rank 25/191)

People Vaccinated: 65.3% (rank 41/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 48.6% (rank 136/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 10.9% (rank 149/173)

Luxembourg Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 125 (rank 65/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.04 (rank 64/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.23 (rank 128/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.17% (rank 158/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -18.11% (rank 88/91)

Current Susceptibles: 64.81% (rank 129/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 34.3% (rank 139/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 58.3 (rank 19/30) (1.3% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 14.2 (rank 15/26) (5.7% full)

Cases per million above 12%, probably due to strong testing. Vaccinating slower than some neighbours. Deaths per million and excess mortality lower than many. Lockdowns lower than most; they were the only Western European country to unlock completely after the first wave (but that only lasted 3 days). Verdict: They have done as well as anyone except the Nordics.

Malta

Malta Counts

Cases per Million: 71975 (rank 55/191)

Deaths per Million: 886 (rank 69/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.2% (rank 129/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 6.7% (rank 64/91)

Tests per 100000: 235434 (rank 14/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 3% (rank 107/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 81.3% (rank 2/191)

People Vaccinated: 81.4% (rank 4/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 52.5% (rank 118/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 25.8% (rank 52/173)

Malta Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 45 (rank 99/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.71 (rank 150/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 1.67 (rank 67/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 1.77% (rank 65/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -14.29% (rank 86/91)

Current Susceptibles: 40.29% (rank 185/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 43.5% (rank 103/174)

The Maltese seem to have done pretty well, though their lockdowns have been heavy compared with other small Western European countries. Second highest full vaccinator in the world. They were caught napping by the delta variant in July, but seem to have got over that. Verdict: Along the right lines, but the lockdowns have been too draconian.

Monaco

Monaco Counts

Cases per Million: 83477 (rank 40/191)

Deaths per Million: 835 (rank 71/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1% (rank 143/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 13.5% (rank 42/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 59% (rank 35/191)

People Vaccinated: 67.5% (rank 32/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 57.6% (rank 93/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 20.3% (rank 80/173)

Monaco Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 51 (rank 95/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.45 (rank 173/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 160/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0% (rank 160/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -2.74% (rank 75/91)

Current Susceptibles: 51.61% (rank 162/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 37% (rank 129/174)

Unsurprisingly, the Monégasque epidemic profile is similar to the French, though here the big peak was the third wave, not the second. They have done quite a bit better than the French, though. Lockdowns are the highest among the small countries, but still comparable with Belgium and the Netherlands. Verdict: They have done OK, considering.

Netherlands

Netherlands Counts

Cases per Million: 118061 (rank 16/191)

Deaths per Million: 1079 (rank 57/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.9% (rank 145/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 8.8% (rank 56/91)

Tests per 100000: 75136 (rank 48/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 15.5% (rank 27/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 63.5% (rank 22/191)

People Vaccinated: 70.2% (rank 26/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 60.4% (rank 78/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 19.9% (rank 84/173)

Netherlands Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 112 (rank 69/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.79 (rank 131/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.43 (rank 102/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.28% (rank 147/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 6.51% (rank 48/91)

Current Susceptibles: 44.93% (rank 177/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 41.7% (rank 110/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 25.3 (rank 23/30) (0.8% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 11.9 (rank 16/26) (18.7% full)

The Dutch have had among the lightest lockdowns among the major Western European countries. They have almost 12% of the population as cases, and a far lower cumulative deaths per case than most of the other countries. They have done the least testing in Western Europe. They, too, got over the delta variant very quickly. Verdict: A pretty decent job in the circumstances.

Norway

Norway Counts

Cases per Million: 33776 (rank 93/191)

Deaths per Million: 156 (rank 123/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0.5% (rank 175/191)

Average Excess Mortality: -1.3% (rank 85/91)

Tests per 100000: 139227 (rank 30/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 2.4% (rank 110/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 65% (rank 19/191)

People Vaccinated: 74.4% (rank 15/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 53.1% (rank 114/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 11.9% (rank 144/173)

Norway Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 135 (rank 59/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.79 (rank 131/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.24 (rank 124/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.09% (rank 159/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -1.01% (rank 71/91)

Current Susceptibles: 52.95% (rank 161/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 38.9% (rank 121/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 21.2 (rank 26/30) (0.6% full)

The Norwegians have locked down a bit harder than the other Nordics except for Sweden. Unusually, in Norway (as in Finland and Iceland) each successive peak of cases has been bigger than the last. But cases per million are low, deaths per case very low, and excess mortality negative. Verdict: A pretty good performance so far.

Portugal

Portugal Counts

Cases per Million: 104642 (rank 25/191)

Deaths per Million: 1764 (rank 29/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.7% (rank 88/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 10.7% (rank 52/91)

Tests per 100000: 177101 (rank 20/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 5.9% (rank 85/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 81.9% (rank 1/191)

People Vaccinated: 87.1% (rank 2/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 65.5% (rank 48/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 26.4% (rank 46/173)

Portugal Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 79 (rank 82/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.72 (rank 144/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.72 (rank 91/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.37% (rank 142/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 5.12% (rank 50/91)

Current Susceptibles: 35.78% (rank 190/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 52.8% (rank 71/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 56 (rank 20/30) (1.7% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 11.8 (rank 18/26) (28.1% full)

Reasonable cases per million, but poor deaths per case. Third highest average lockdowns in Western Europe, including some really nasty ones, like travel restrictions all week-end, every week-end for weeks on end. The hospitals and ICUs have been full to overflowing. But Portugal is now the top vaccinator in the world, which does seem to have helped keep recent cases down. Verdict: For the Portuguese, all this has been a bit of a nightmare.

San Marino

San Marino Counts

Cases per Million: 159453 (rank 4/191)

Deaths per Million: 2646 (rank 9/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.7% (rank 89/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 29% (rank 17/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 71.5% (rank 14/191)

People Vaccinated: 71.5% (rank 23/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 50.2% (rank 131/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 18.5% (rank 92/173)

San Marino Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 88 (rank 78/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.02 (rank 75/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 160/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0% (rank 160/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 22.45% (rank 27/91)

Current Susceptibles: 38.22% (rank 189/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 50% (rank 88/174)

The Sammarinese got hit really hard by the first wave, as shown by the deaths counts. But though they are surrounded by Italy, their lockdowns have been light in comparison. Their vaccinations seem largely to have been completed. If, as I suspect, that little bump in cases in July was the only effect of the delta variant, then they’re in good shape from here on in. They are probably as close to herd immunity as anyone in the world. Verdict: They have suffered bad times; but absent another new variant, I think they’ve pulled through them.

Spain

Spain Counts

Cases per Million: 105697 (rank 23/191)

Deaths per Million: 1842 (rank 26/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.7% (rank 85/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 14% (rank 40/91)

Tests per 100000: 123114 (rank 33/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 8.6% (rank 59/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 76.6% (rank 6/191)

People Vaccinated: 80% (rank 6/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 61% (rank 69/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 18.7% (rank 89/173)

Spain Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 57 (rank 92/191)

Reproduction Rate: 0.73 (rank 143/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 1.37 (rank 69/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.96% (rank 104/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 9.47% (rank 44/91)

Current Susceptibles: 39.39% (rank 187/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 42.1% (rank 109/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 106.4 (rank 12/30) (3.6% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 26.2 (rank 6/26) (27.1% full)

The Spaniards have suffered under the cosh of heavy lockdowns. The deaths per million are lower than Italy or the UK. But like Portugal, the hospitals and ICUs have been filled to capacity. The vaccination program is strong. Verdict: A bad experience for all, and excess mortality is still up, but hopefully they’ll get there in the end.

Sweden

Sweden Counts

Cases per Million: 112978 (rank 19/191)

Deaths per Million: 1458 (rank 39/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.3% (rank 124/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 2.9% (rank 72/91)

People Fully Vaccinated: 62.3% (rank 27/191)

People Vaccinated: 69.6% (rank 28/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 55.3% (rank 105/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 13.3% (rank 135/173)

Sweden Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 72 (rank 86/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.14 (rank 43/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.97 (rank 79/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.95% (rank 105/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -3.51% (rank 76/91)

Current Susceptibles: 47.21% (rank 170/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 37% (rank 129/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 33.5 (rank 21/30) (1.5% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 5.4 (rank 22/26) (9.3% full)

The Swedes lost a lot of people at the beginning of the epidemic; but deaths per million have not risen as fast since then as they have in many other countries. And the excess mortality has been excellent. Their lockdowns have been heavier than most other Nordics, but they are by far the largest Nordic country. I think their relatively “light touch” approach, compared with non-Nordic countries, has been vindicated. Verdict: There are certainly worse places to have been during the epidemic than Sweden!

Switzerland

Switzerland Counts

Cases per Million: 95261 (rank 31/191)

Deaths per Million: 1265 (rank 50/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.3% (rank 119/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 8.2% (rank 58/91)

Tests per 100000: 114987 (rank 34/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 8.2% (rank 62/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 52.9% (rank 46/191)

People Vaccinated: 61% (rank 56/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 51.1% (rank 123/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 15% (rank 117/173)

Switzerland Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 189 (rank 45/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.06 (rank 61/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 0.77 (rank 88/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.27% (rank 149/186)

Current Excess Mortality: -8.21% (rank 83/91)

Current Susceptibles: 54.59% (rank 154/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 44.4% (rank 100/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 81.5 (rank 13/30) (1.8% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 26.2 (rank 7/26) (23.8% full)

The Swiss, in their own quiet and methodical way, have been keeping the virus under control better than some of those around them. The delta variant bump seems to have lasted longer here than elsewhere; perhaps because of their relatively laid-back attitude on vaccinations. But the excess mortality is now strongly negative. Verdict: A decent performance.

UK

UK Counts

Cases per Million: 110923 (rank 21/191)

Deaths per Million: 1993 (rank 23/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 1.8% (rank 79/191)

Average Excess Mortality: 11.2% (rank 48/91)

Tests per 100000: 386574 (rank 7/128)

Cumulative Cases per Test: 2.8% (rank 108/128)

People Fully Vaccinated: 65.1% (rank 18/191)

People Vaccinated: 71.2% (rank 24/191)

Average Lockdown Stringency: 62.7% (rank 64/174)

Average Time in Full Lockdowns: 23.1% (rank 66/173)

UK Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 459 (rank 17/191)

Reproduction Rate: 1.03 (rank 69/184)

Daily Deaths per Million: 2.07 (rank 59/186)

Deaths per Case (21 day offset): 0.42% (rank 141/186)

Current Excess Mortality: 11.14% (rank 40/91)

Current Susceptibles: 45.05% (rank 176/191)

Current Lockdown Stringency: 41.2% (rank 113/174)

Hospital Occupancy per Million: 113.3 (rank 11/30) (4.5% full)

ICU Occupancy per Million: 14.4 (rank 14/26) (21.8% full)

Cases per million have been growing rapidly since the push for herd immunity began in mid-July. Deaths per million and cumulative deaths per case are bad, but not as bad as you might have expected given the awful performance in the first year and a half of the epidemic. Lockdowns have been stringent; there seems to be a battle between the “advisors” who want to lock everyone down as hard as possible for as long as possible, and some of the politicians, who realize that doing so won’t be good for their careers. In England at least, these politicians won the July round; perhaps because the new health secretary is actually half way numerate. In consequence, case counts are now behaving like a yo-yo. But every yo and oy takes us a step closer to herd immunity.

Verdict: Overall, a rubbish performance; and one that, typically, has shown no concern at all for the “little people” like barbers and small shopkeepers. But since the change of health secretary, the strategy of going for herd immunity has been, I think, the right one.

Vatican

I won’t bother with the graph because it shows nothing of interest. So here is the report:

Vatican Counts

Cases per Million: 33251 (rank 95/191) (12 cases in all)

Deaths per Million: 0 (rank 187/191)

Cumulative Deaths per Case: 0% (rank 187/191)

People Fully Vaccinated: 0% (rank 185/191)

People Vaccinated: 0% (rank 187/191)

Vatican Current Status

Daily Cases per Million: 0 (rank 180/191)

Current Susceptibles: 96.67% (rank 42/191)

And with this wholly (or holy?) uninteresting country report, I’ll close.