Thursday, 9 October 2025

Predatory Precaution


(Based on an image, credit: Schwoaze, Pixabay)

Today, I’ll uncover one of the worst, and most insidious, of all the bad things that are being done to us human beings today. That is, the perversion of the so-called “precautionary principle” into a tool for tyranny and predation.

I have written on this subject several times, with emphasis on different aspects of the matter. But today, for the first time, I will try to bring my thoughts on it all together in one place.

The origins of the precautionary principle

When I was young, I was taught a precautionary principle that said, “Look before you leap.” In other words, don’t take any rash step until you are pretty damn sure that the overall results are likely to be good rather than bad. Good advice, no?

But this has not always been the way the principle has been formulated. This article from 2021 in the British Medical Journal gives a good view of its early history: [[1]]. It traces the principle from ancient Chinese origins to “First, do no harm,” which many people think of as the Hippocratic oath for doctors. So far, so good.

The start of the perversion

But then, German environmentalists, with their lop-sided view that all air pollution is bad, even if the nett benefits of an activity are greater than the costs of the pollution it causes, got in on the act. The precautionary principle was changed. Gradually and subtly at first, it moved from “first, do no harm” to “take regulatory action, even if the evidence is uncertain.” This change was intensified by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), particularly in the drafting of the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which banned emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

This paper [[2]] documents some of the steps, by which the precautionary principle began to morph into something very different. It tells how activist scientists, combined with power-hungry regulators, perverted the earlier approach that “emphasizes precaution and scientific knowledge before action” into a system of “rules… that compel lower-level decision makers (households, firms and other organizations) to not engage in activity that risks tipping-points and other irreversible outcomes.” The coin had flipped from reactive regulation based on actual, measurable damage, to proactive regulation, based on speculation and scares.

With hindsight, we can see that all this was a “perfect storm” for tyranny. It allowed to the unscrupulous abundant opportunities for ever more, and ever tightening, government overreach, without any need for them ever to have to prove anyone guilty of anything.

The precautionary principle might sound like an abstract, even a “philosophical” idea. How can such an innocuous sounding idea make people’s lives a misery? But in truth, its perversion has had profound, negative effects on all our lives.

The 1992 Rio Summit

The UK Tory party, for one, had by 1992 already formed a perverted view of the precautionary principle. In their 1992 election manifesto, they described it as: “the need to act, where there is significant risk of damage, before the scientific evidence is conclusive.” That is a far cry from “Look before you leap!” Indeed, it is not at all far away from its opposite.

At Rio, John Major and cohorts signed up to the “Rio Declaration on Environment and Development.” [[3]]. And, in particular, to Principle 15: “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

Now, I find that idea rather bizarre. For, if you don’t have a high degree of scientific certainty about the size and likelihood of a problem, how can you possibly assess whether or not a proposed counter-measure is cost-effective? Yet, with a recklessness typical of dishonest, unaccountable, psychopathic politicians, they signed us up to it anyway.

That was an egregious violation of the true precautionary principle. And it marked the first of the three major steps, in which the UN, the EU, the UK government, and the globalist and corporate ruling classes and their hangers-on, perverted it into a tool for tyranny and predation on us human beings.

The 1998 Wingspread Conference

In early 1998, the Wingspread Conference on the Precautionary Principle was held in the USA. It was hosted by Samuel Curtis Johnson, long-time chairman of S. C. Johnson & Son, Inc., a founder of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), and described by Fortune magazine as “corporate America's leading environmentalist.” It was convened by a shadowy organization, only founded in 1994, called the Science and Environmental Health Network (SEHN).

This was the second of the three major steps, in which the principle was perverted, in effect, from “Look before you leap” or “First, do no harm,” to “If in doubt about a risk, government must act to prevent it.”

The SEHN’s (much later) account of the conference is here: [[4]]. It described the participants as “treaty negotiators, activists, scholars and scientists from the United States, Canada and Europe.” It says: “The key element of the principle is that it incites us to take anticipatory action in the absence of scientific certainty. At the conclusion of the three-day conference, the diverse group issued a statement calling for government, corporations, communities and scientists to implement the ‘precautionary principle’ in making decisions.”

The Statement extended Principle 15 from the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. It says: “When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof.”

This is a radical re-write of the precautionary principle, in at least four ways. First, the idea that the action to be taken must be cost-effective, which had been included in the Rio Declaration, was thrown out of the window. As a result, the principle became a recipe for predation on taxpayers. Second, the re-written principle required precautionary action to be taken, even if there is no proof, or even hard evidence, that there is any danger at all. Third, it inverted the burden of proof, and undermined the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. And fourth, when they talked of “the public,” they didn’t mean us ordinary people. What they meant is that government shouldn’t have to bear the burden of proving its accusations. So, all of us, for simply going about our daily lives, are to be treated as guilty, unless and until proven innocent (and that won’t be easy!) That is tyranny.

However, the Statement also said: “The process of applying the Precautionary Principle must be open, informed and democratic and must include potentially affected parties. It must also involve an examination of the full range of alternatives, including no action.”

That one concession apart, with a few strokes of the pen, the Wingspread activists gave the political and corporate élites and their hangers-on carte blanche to violate our human rights as they please in matters affecting the environment. They put something they called “the environment” up on a pedestal, above the human environment; the rights and freedoms, justice and honesty that we human beings need in order to survive, flourish and prosper.

In summary: They inverted the burden of proof. They rejected the presumption of innocence. They required the accused (that’s us) to prove a negative. They mandated “precautionary” action, however much pain it would cause. And they threw out all consideration of objective cost-benefit or risk-benefit analysis.

The 2002 Inter-departmental Liaison Group for Risk Assessment report

2002 was the year in which the perversion of the precautionary principle, which had begun with the Rio Declaration and been extended by the Wingspread Statement, was not only explicitly incorporated into UK government policy, but strengthened too. The Interdepartmental Liaison Group for Risk Assessment, a working party originally set up in 1994, produced a report called: “The Precautionary Principle: Policy and Application”: [[5]]. It followed on from a corresponding EU document, agreed in 2000.

They saw the purpose of the principle as “to create an impetus to take a decision notwithstanding scientific uncertainty about the nature and extent of the risk.” They saw it as to be applied whenever “it is impossible to assess the risk with sufficient confidence to inform decision-making.” They wanted to invoke it “even if the likelihood of harm is remote.” They said, too, that “the precautionary principle carries a general presumption that the burden of proof shifts away from the regulator having to demonstrate potential for harm towards the hazard creator having to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety.” And they misused an aphorism attributed to Carl Sagan, saying: “‘Absence of evidence of risk’ should never be confused with, or taken as, ‘evidence of absence of risk’.”

This goes further even than the Wingspread Statement did. It doesn’t just invert the burden of proof and require us, the accused, to prove a negative. But it enables them to take “precautionary” action against any risk, even one that is minuscule or very unlikely, instead of requiring an objective risk analysis accurate enough to support good decision making. Moreover, they want the decision to be taken before all the evidence has been mulled over. And even if there’s no evidence at all that our activity causes any harm to anyone, they wouldn’t accept that as evidence!

In essence, the UK government decreed, in contradiction to the norm of presumption of innocence, that absence of evidence of guilt is not evidence of absence of guilt. They decided to re-write the precautionary principle to say, in effect: “If in doubt about a risk, government must act to prevent it.” Regardless of how much harm, or costs, their action causes to the people they are supposed to be serving. This, again, is tyranny.

Related cultural perversions

As I have outlined above, the precautionary principle has, over time, been subverted and all but inverted. The UN, the EU, the UK government and the globalist and corporate ruling classes have perverted it into a tool for tyranny and predation on us human beings.

But in the process, this perversion has spawned two more cultural perversions, from which we all suffer today. One is a culture of arbitrary, collective, ever tightening targets and limits on what we may do. The other is a culture of “safety at any cost.” Together, these bad cultures make our lives today all but unliveable.

Creeping targets and limits

The culture of arbitrary, collective, ever tightening targets and limits was conceived by the European political élites in the 1980s. It was initially designed to be applied to all kinds of air pollution, as well as to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Since then, it has been taken on eagerly, both by the UN and its World Health Organization (WHO), and by UK governments of all parties. And in the 2010s, the EU became its policeman across Europe.

The desire to get away from this culture was one of the motivations that led so many of us back in 2016 to vote for Brexit. But despite leaving the EU, this culture has not been weakened. Indeed, the UK government, particularly since 2019, have been pushing it ever harder and harder.

This culture, too, has characteristics that make it very nasty to live under. One, it can never be applied fairly and justly. Collective limits always weigh hardest on the people at the bottom of the political ladder. The arrogant élites, both as individuals and as a group, will simply ignore the limits they themselves promote. They think they only apply to “the little people.” That explains, for example, why so many hypocrites fly in CO2-spewing helicopters or private jets to conferences about ways to force ordinary people to reduce CO2 emissions.

Two, a key part of the design is that the goalposts must be kept moving. The job is never done; the problem, whatever it is, is never solved. For example, the CO2 emissions goalposts have already been moved many times, always in the direction of increasing restrictions. Exactly the same is planned for particulate matter (PM2.5), and no doubt other kinds of pollution as well. And we have had, for decades, ever tightening speed limits on the roads.

Three, in the end, the targets or limits will always end up becoming unrealistic and unachievable. This has already happened with “nett zero.” It will do so with air pollution too, once the implications of the WHO’s latest guideline for PM2.5 sink in to people’s minds. And it’s not impossible that government may try to resurrect the 19th-century law that required every car to be preceded by someone walking, carrying a red flag.

Safety at any cost

We are subjected today to a culture of “safety at any cost.” This culture, applied by political governments, subjects us to ever more and tighter restrictions, while spying on us to catch us out in the smallest violation.

But who is supposed to feel “safe?” And who or what are we supposed to feel safe from? This culture certainly doesn’t make me, for one, feel safe against government overreach.

Moreover, this culture has led to ongoing failures to do objective risk analysis on, or cost-benefit analysis from the point of view of the people affected by, green projects. And in the latter case, to machinations designed to prevent any such cost-benefit analysis being done. In a later article, I will outline how the UK government has again and again plotted to ensure that no objective cost-benefit analysis would ever be done for “nett zero.”

This culture of over-safety, I think, has also been a major force behind the ongoing assaults on our freedom of speech. For such a depraved culture cannot survive the glare of the truth.

The demonization of opponents of the “climate change” meme. The censorship, using Big Tech, of dissident voices who seek to reveal the truth. The efforts to make any chance remark into a potential “hate crime.” All these, I surmise, are different heads of the same hydra.

And this hydra has, if I am not mistaken, many more heads still. The erection, on just about any excuse, of more and more “panopticon” cameras to track and record us as we go about our daily lives. The ever-growing list of situations, in which we are required to confirm who we are; and the prospect of being forced to use a “digital ID,” that will be entirely controlled by government for its own purposes. Projects such as anti-money-laundering laws, the abolition of cash, and central bank digital currencies, whose effects will be to destroy the last shreds of privacy in our financial dealings. And immediate, permanent de-banking of people who cannot provide a bank with ID when asked.

All these, I think, are being driven ultimately by this same perversion, the culture of safety at any cost. Together with the psychopathic nature of many of those in the ruling classes, or in positions of government power today.

Governments and their hangers-on like to make out that they want us to be safe. This very excuse is used to “justify” campaigns like “road safety.” But in my cynical moods, I think that it is the denizens of this depraved culture that want to make themselves safe. Safe from “climate change,” safe from air pollution, safe from the truth coming out, safe from all possible resistance by the human beings they are oppressing. Safe from us.

To sum up

The perversion of the precautionary principle into a tool for tyranny and predation lies at the heart of many of the problems we suffer today. This perversion, in effect, inverts the burden of proof, denies the presumption of innocence, and requires the accused – that’s us – to prove a negative. The perversion was originally sparked by German environmentalists, but it was taken on and broadened by the UN, and acted on by the EU, governments – particularly the UK, and the globalist and corporate ruling classes and their hangers-on.

This perversion has led to two related cultural perversions. One, of arbitrary, collective, ever tightening targets and limits on what we may do. The other, a culture of “safety at any cost,” which throws out all consideration of objective cost-benefit or risk-benefit analysis.

It is my view that all good people, including Reform UK supporters, should recognize these cultural perversions for what they are. And should start to push back not only against the perversions themselves, but also against those that are responsible for them, or have used them to harm innocent people.

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