For my latest COVID rant, I thought I would return to the 14 countries, including the UK, which together form the core of Western Europe. First, because I wanted to see whether there was any evidence in the data that the “omicron” variant in the UK, and perhaps some other European countries, has indeed – as is claimed – a lowered risk of requiring hospitalization. If so, that will be good news. Second, I noticed that different European countries have often been taking completely different attitudes towards lockdowns over the last six months, and I wanted to compare and contrast both these differing attitudes and their results.
I took the data from the Our World in Data and Blavatnik
School of Government feeds on December 25th. The data runs up to
December 24th.
Omicron
But first, a few words about the Omicron variant.
According to the Guardian [[1]],
it became the dominant variant in the UK (more than 50% of cases) around
December 14th. (An excellent article, by the way; for once, a
journalist has asked some of the right questions!) By December 18th,
it was accounting for about 70% of new UK cases. There’s a lot of uncertainty
in these estimates, since only PCR tests can actually distinguish between the
omicron and delta variants, and these are only a minority of the tests being done.
But I’m inclined to accept these figures as “the best I have.”
Moreover, according to Al-Jazeera [[2]],
the UK hospitalization rates for omicron are about 50% to 70% lower than for
delta. So, I’d expect at least some decline in the rate of COVID
hospitalizations, and hence in hospital occupancy, to show up in the most recent
data.
Cases
Much has happened in the three months since I last
reported on COVID in these 14 countries. Here are the total cases per million
population:
Prominent in the graph above is the separation of the countries into two groups. There are a number of countries – the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK, also Ireland, Denmark and just recently France – which seem, relatively speaking, to have been “letting the virus rip.” It’s interesting that the acceleration of new case counts in the UK dates almost exactly to Sajid Javid’s take-over of the health ministry in June. On the other hand, countries such as Germany, Italy and Switzerland seem to be taking a far more cautious attitude.
Here are the daily cases per million:
The graph shows recent peaks for those countries which have locked down in the face of “unprecedented” levels of cases (Austria, Italy, Belgium). There’s a peak for Denmark as well, but this is not due to any lockdown. It is due to a major negative adjustment in the case counts, which appears in the figures for December 24th.
Notably, every single country in the list is above the
WHO’s “endemic” threshold of 200 cases per million per day, above which they
recommend no unlocking. The cynic in me is coming to think that this figure may
have been deliberately set low, perhaps in order to prolong the epidemic and
damage Western economies more as a result.
Vaccinations
I’m not going to say much about vaccinations today, for
two reasons. First, as the list below shows, the differences between the
countries in vaccination levels are not huge, except for Portugal:
Second, the omicron variant is rumoured to be able to evade the vaccines; which, if true, could turn out to be a game-changer. Reports from Denmark already suggest this is so. But I definitely don’t have nearly enough data yet to make any call on that particular issue.
Lockdowns
The picture on lockdowns has become rather confused over
the last six months or so:
It’s worth comparing this list with the “stacked average lockdowns” list, which measures over the whole epidemic the propensity of each country to impose lockdowns of various types:
It’s generally the Catholic countries and Germany which have tended to lock down hardest, though the UK’s record is not brilliant either. And Sweden, Denmark and Luxembourg have been consistently near the bottom of the stringency list.
Hospital Occupancy
Here are the
hospital occupancies by COVID patients per million population (the Germans are
not reporting this figure, as they only supply data on hospital admissions):
Here are the same numbers expressed as a percentage of available hospital bed capacity. I also added, for comparison, the list of peak hospital bed occupancy by COVID patients over the whole epidemic:
You can see which countries are under-provided with hospital beds! The UK, Italy and Spain.
Another metric I follow is hospital occupancy per new case,
with an offset of 7 days, to allow for the gap between infection and
hospitalization. Although this is expressed as a percentage, it would need to
be divided by the average “dwell time” in days of COVID patients in the hospital,
to give an idea of what fraction of cases require hospitalization. As I have no
idea how long this “dwell time” is, or how it varies by country, I’ll simply
show the metric as it is:
The French seem both to have more hospital beds available than others, and to use them for longer in each case. The UK’s very different positions in the lists of percentages full and occupancy per case suggest that despite the high number of new cases, the virus is not, right now, causing problems as serious as in some other countries.
ICU Occupancy
Here are the corresponding graphs and lists for Intensive
Care Unit occupancy (Denmark does not report this). The offset between new cases
and ICU occupancy is 14 days:
The numbers of ICU beds I have for Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain, at least, must be understated compared to the reality! But the downward trend in ICU occupancy per case virtually everywhere since mid-October is comforting.
Deaths
Here are the total deaths per million:
That blue line that suddenly accelerates upwards, starting in about October, is Austria. Germany, too, has had a strong rise in deaths recently. As I’ve said before, early success against the virus does not guarantee that success will continue!
Here are the daily deaths per million:
Here are the cumulative deaths per case:
Notice the UK’s constant slide down this unenviable ranking since June.
As I’ve said before, high cumulative deaths per case
should provide a good indicator of poor performance of a health system as a
whole. Though when the epidemic is over, I’d expect that the main metric on
which politicians ought to be judged should be minimizing deaths per million;
if not also minimizing loss of GDP.
Here is the excess mortality graph (from all causes,
relative to the average of years 2015-2019). I won’t bother to show the latest
values list, as different countries seem to report with very different lag
times, and Italy in particular hasn’t reported any excess mortality figures for
three whole months:
It’s noticeable that there have been quite a few countries trending upwards in excess mortality since about October, among them Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium.
Lastly, here are the average excess mortalities for each
country over the whole epidemic:
Interesting. Down at the bottom, there are both relatively low lockdown countries (Denmark, Luxembourg, Sweden) and high lockdown ones (Ireland, Germany, France). But Italy, the strictest of them all on lockdowns, is right at the top.
Lockdown Effectiveness
Which leads me to the relative effectiveness of lockdowns
in the different countries. Here are scatterplots of cases per million, deaths
per million, cumulative deaths per case and average excess mortality against
average lockdown stringency over the whole epidemic. As there are only 14
countries in the group, the “trend lines” I draw can have only qualitative
value. Nevertheless, the results are interesting!
The negative correlation between cases per million and average lockdown stringency is not unexpected. Although not necessarily so in other parts of the world, it does seem that, within the core of Europe, lockdowns have had at least some effect of lowering new cases. However, the correlation between all three of the mortality metrics and average lockdown stringency is positive. In the past, I have been eager – perhaps too eager – to explain this by saying, “bad deaths figures cause politicians to lock down harder.” But, as I’m now starting to think, might there not be some feedback the other way, too? For example, might controlling early cases too hard lead to increased vulnerability to the virus later? Either because a more severe variant arrives – as arguably with the alpha and the delta – or because the virus then has more time in which to seek out the “low hanging fruit,” the people it was always most likely to get anyway? Could it be that “lockdowns cost lives” might be more than just a slogan?
Individual Country Case Studies
Now, I’ll look at the individual countries in more detail.
For most, I’ll show just the weekly case growth and reproduction rate against
lockdown stringency, and the hospitalizations and ICU data. I’ll also show the
lockdown measures since July 1st 2021. Where necessary, I’ll add
cases and deaths for the country, and/or hospitalizations per case.
Austria
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210701 |
49.07 |
Schools: Some closed (Regional), Workplaces: Some
closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public
transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No
restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in
some places |
|
20210811 |
56.02 |
Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 (Regional) Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20210825 |
58.8 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional) |
|
20210909 |
49.07 |
Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 Travel: No restrictions |
|
20210915 |
51.85 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
|
20210918 |
60.19 |
Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20210929 |
51.85 |
Travel: No restrictions |
|
20211018 |
60.19 |
Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20211101 |
57.41 |
International: Quarantine high-risk |
|
20211108 |
49.07 |
Travel: No restrictions |
|
20211115 |
59.26 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional) Stay at home: Required with exceptions |
|
20211122 |
64.81 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled Gatherings: Up to <=10 |
|
20211127 |
67.59 |
International: Ban some arrivals |
|
20211212 |
64.81 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
It seems obvious why the Austrians locked down hard in the middle of November; they were approaching the practical limits of their ICU capacity. And why they banned some arrivals on November 27th; this was an attempt to keep omicron out. They seem to have done better at keeping omicron down than many of the countries around them. But the pundits are saying it’s only a matter of time before that changes.
Belgium
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210730 |
47.22 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport:
Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban
some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20210901 |
43.06 |
Events: Recommended cancelled (Regional) Gatherings: Up to <=10 (Regional) |
|
20211001 |
40.28 |
Events: Recommended cancelled Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 (Regional) Face covering: Required in some places (Regional) |
|
20211015 |
45.83 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional) Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional) |
|
20211117 |
48.61 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20211127 |
53.7 |
Workplaces: Mandatory closed Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
|
20211130 |
48.15 |
Events: Recommended cancelled |
Like Austria, Belgian ICU capacity was somewhat threatened in mid to late November. They decided to use the big stick, mandatory closure of workplaces. It has done the job – sort of – but at what cost to the people? And there are more curbs on the way: [[3]].
Denmark
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210702 |
47.22 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public transport:
Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban
some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210731 |
38.89 |
Events: Recommended cancelled International: Quarantine high-risk Contact tracing: Comprehensive Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20210901 |
29.63 |
Workplaces: Recommended closed Gatherings: No restrictions |
|
20210910 |
24.07 |
Events: Allowed |
|
20210928 |
24.07 |
Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20211102 |
24.07 |
Testing: If symptoms |
|
20211112 |
44.44 |
Workplaces: Some closed Events: Mandatory cancelled Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 |
|
20211130 |
38.89 |
Events: Recommended cancelled Testing: Open |
The Danes aren’t providing ICU occupancy figures, so I can’t tell whether it was ICU capacity that triggered the November 12th lockdown. But selective closure of workplaces was their weapon of choice.
Danish hospital occupancy per case has declined from a local peak of 29% in late September to under 7% by December 20th. That looks very good. But given the recent adjustment to cases, I wonder whether this will continue?
The latest news from Denmark, though, seems optimistic: [[4]].
And according to the Rio Times [[5]]:
“The unvaccinated, about one-fifth of the Danish population, accounted for only
8.5 percent of Omicron infections.” This should be a big slap in the face for
all those that have been pushing to make vaccinations compulsory against all
ideas of human rights. In fact, there’s even a plausible suggestion that
vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to omicron than the
unvaccinated.
France
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210709 |
43.98 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed
(Regional), Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to 11-100
(Regional), Public transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No
restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in
some places (Regional) |
|
20210712 |
43.98 |
Face covering: Required when with others (Regional) |
|
20210809 |
60.65 |
Public transport: Recommended closed Travel: Mandatory restrictions |
|
20210813 |
66.67 |
Workplaces: Some closed Events: Mandatory cancelled Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
|
20210926 |
66.67 |
Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20211204 |
72.22 |
Public transport: Mandatory closed Face covering: Required when with others |
Since August, the French have been trying out more and more stringent lockdowns. But ooh la là ! none of it seems to have done them any good, as the cases graph shows:
Despite ever more stringent lockdowns, new cases are still heading north at an unprecedented rate. Do I detect, perhaps, the signature of l’omicron?
It isn’t worth showing the graph of hospital occupancy per
case, as the detail of interest is so close to the axis that it’s all but
invisible. However, this value has declined from 154% in the middle of October
to 31% as of December 20th. Not immediately conclusive; but it’s
even possible that the French have actually had l’omicron spreading
among them longer than anyone, even themselves, had thought. When I look at the
French raw case numbers, I think I see an explosive growth beginning around
November 10th – more than two weeks ahead of the South African
reports. Is omicron, perhaps, becoming omacron?
Post-script: Given reports that the Dutch had omicron
earlier than the South Africans did – see later – I think it’s quite
conceivable that the French may have had it back in November, too. That would
suggest that the decline in hospital occupancy per case in France may be genuine evidence
that omicron is less serious than delta.
Germany
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210801 |
64.81 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public transport:
Recommended closed, Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Recommended not to
travel, International: Quarantine high-risk, Face covering: Required in some
places |
|
20210803 |
59.26 |
Travel: No restrictions |
|
20210820 |
56.48 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
|
20210824 |
62.04 |
Schools: Mandatory closed (Regional) |
|
20210828 |
60.19 |
Workplaces: Some closed (Regional) |
|
20210911 |
54.63 |
Schools: Recommended closed |
|
20211001 |
46.3 |
Events: Recommended cancelled (Regional) |
|
20211010 |
37.04 |
Public transport: Open Stay at home: No measures |
|
20211019 |
42.59 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional) |
|
20211028 |
43.98 |
Gatherings: Up to <=10 (Regional) |
|
20211110 |
45.83 |
Schools: Some closed (Regional) |
|
20211119 |
55.09 |
Stay at home: Recommended Travel: Recommended not to travel |
|
20211124 |
73.61 |
Workplaces: Some closed Public transport: Mandatory closed Travel: Mandatory restrictions |
|
20211126 |
76.39 |
International: Ban some arrivals |
|
20211202 |
84.26 |
Workplaces: Mandatory closed Events: Mandatory cancelled Gatherings: Up to <=10 |
The Germans were slow to unlock, and very eager indeed to lock down again – hard. The ICU graph shows one good reason why; from late October, ICU occupancy was rising inexorably. The rises in cases and ICU occupancy have been staunched since then, but only at the cost of subjecting Germans to their second highest lockdowns of the entire epidemic.
Again I say, early success against the virus does not necessarily
lead to success later. In this case, it looks as if the Germans may have shot
themselves in the feet, by controlling the earlier waves too well. So
now, with the lowest total cases per million among the 14 countries, they are
further from herd immunity than anyone else.
Ireland
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210704 |
44.44 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport:
Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban
some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20210920 |
40.74 |
Workplaces: Recommended closed |
|
20211022 |
37.96 |
Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 |
|
20211028 |
44.44 |
Workplaces: Some closed Events: Mandatory cancelled Gatherings: Up to >1000 |
|
20211207 |
50 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 |
In the first year or so of the epidemic, the Irish suffered some of the harshest lockdowns in Europe. Their initial strategy was, like the Germans, to control cases as hard as possible. Since then, though, there seems to have been a change of approach to a more liberal one.
Ireland has climbed fast up the cases per million ladder;
and yet, their deaths per million have remained low, second from bottom among
the 14 countries, and below even Germany’s. New delta cases seem under control,
and hospital and ICU occupancy are middling compared with the other countries, though
ICU occupancy still needs watching.
For the last six months, I’d say the Irish have done a
good job. And the BBC say omicron is already dominant in Ireland: [[6]].
But there are still new curbs coming in on hospitality venues, cinemas and
theatres. It’s wait-and-see time.
Italy
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210701 |
47.22 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public transport:
Recommended closed, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International:
Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210714 |
75.46 |
Schools: Mandatory closed (Regional) Workplaces: Mandatory closed (Regional) Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional) Gatherings: Up to <=10 (Regional) Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional) Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20210720 |
75.46 |
Face covering: Required when with others (Regional) |
|
20210723 |
67.13 |
Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210730 |
50 |
Schools: Recommended closed Workplaces: Some closed Events: Recommended cancelled Gatherings: Up to >1000 |
|
20210806 |
55.56 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled |
|
20210830 |
56.94 |
Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 (Regional) Face covering: Required when with others (Regional) |
|
20210901 |
60.65 |
Schools: Some closed |
|
20211001 |
68.98 |
Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20211009 |
67.59 |
Gatherings: Up to >1000 |
|
20211015 |
71.3 |
Workplaces: Mandatory closed |
|
20211019 |
66.67 |
Stay at home: Recommended Travel: Recommended not to travel Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20211023 |
66.67 |
Face covering: Required when with others (Regional) |
|
20211025 |
71.3 |
Stay at home: Required with exceptions (Regional) Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional) |
|
20211206 |
76.85 |
Public transport: Mandatory closed |
The Italian COVID experience has been the worst among all 14 countries. Second in deaths per million, first by a mile in cumulative deaths per case, heaviest locked down of all. And yet, second from bottom in cases per million, so very probably second furthest from herd immunity. Moreover, new cases are currently going through the roof:
That looks like omicron to me; as in France. And the lockdowns seem to be having no effect whatsoever.
Here’s the hospital occupancy per case:
Hospital occupancy per case has gone down since mid-October, but not by as much as in France. The Italians, I fear, are up the proverbial shit creek. So much for their high-lockdown strategy.
Luxembourg
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210720 |
37.96 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended
closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 101-1000, Public
transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions,
International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210921 |
37.96 |
Testing: Restricted |
|
20210924 |
34.26 |
Schools: Open |
|
20210927 |
37.96 |
Schools: Recommended closed Testing: Open |
|
20211012 |
46.3 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 Public transport: Recommended closed |
|
20211214 |
46.3 |
Face covering: Required when with others |
As their current daily cases per million is unexceptional, I surmise that omicron hasn’t reached Luxembourg yet, at least not to a significant extent. Though they have already announced some fresh curbs: [[7]]. Otherwise, this looks to have been a mostly sane and proportionate response to the virus; so far.
But the “Christian Democrat” party is agitating for
compulsory vaccination! We’ll see what they do when omicron really hits.
Netherlands
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210710 |
36.11 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed,
Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: No restrictions, Public transport:
Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban
some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210720 |
41.67 |
Public transport: Recommended closed |
|
20210731 |
41.67 |
Contact tracing: Comprehensive |
|
20210814 |
41.67 |
Testing: Open |
|
20210925 |
47.22 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled |
|
20211008 |
41.67 |
Public transport: Open |
|
20211113 |
52.78 |
Gatherings: Up to <=10 Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20211127 |
56.48 |
Stay at home: Recommended |
|
20211219 |
63.89 |
Schools: Mandatory closed |
It looks as if the lockdown on December 19th was far more severe than just closing schools, see here: [[8]]. But that doesn’t show up yet in the Blavatnik data I took on the 25th.
I’ll need to show some more graphs here, because I found a
very interesting report from last November about COVID in the Netherlands: [[9]].
It seems they had omicron at least as early as the South Africans did! So, here
are the graphs of cases and of hospitalizations per case for the Netherlands:
Now, look at that last but one peak in the cases – the one in July. That very steep rise to the peak happened in many other European countries too, and was the “signature” of the delta variant. Given that the Dutch appeared to have the virus under control through August and September, it is not hard to hypothesize that the latest peak of cases was not delta, but something else.
Could it have been omicron, as the Reuters report
suggested was possible? Could omicron have been in the Netherlands already, as
early as October? In that case, if omicron genuinely is less severe than delta,
we might expect to see a significant drop in hospitalizations per case since
September. Hospital occupancy per case has indeed dropped over that period, but
only from 20.5% to 11.5%. Possible, but not conclusive.
But there’s something else odd going on in the
Netherlands, too. The reported daily COVID cases per million went down by
almost half during the period from November 27th to December 21st.
The raw data still shows cases dropping, right through to December 24th.
COVID deaths per million, too, were dropping from December 12th
onwards. So why has there even been talk of COVID cases “exploding,” whether omicron
or otherwise? That may have been a fair comment a month ago, but certainly not
now.
And where is the rationale for imposing any lockdown at
all on December 19th? The only possible rationale I can see is that
they aren’t sure they have enough ICUs to cope with another wave. But shutting
the whole country down right before Christmas seems, to me at least, to be way
beyond reasonable.
Portugal
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210702 |
74.07 |
Schools: Some closed (Regional), Workplaces: Some
closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled, Gatherings: Up to <=10, Public
transport: Recommended closed, Stay at home: Required with exceptions
(Regional), Travel: Mandatory restrictions (Regional), International: Ban
some arrivals, Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20210705 |
65.74 |
Travel: No restrictions |
|
20210709 |
63.89 |
Schools: Recommended closed |
|
20210801 |
58.33 |
Stay at home: No measures |
|
20210823 |
52.78 |
Public transport: Open |
|
20210903 |
52.78 |
Contact tracing: Comprehensive |
|
20210913 |
52.78 |
Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20211001 |
44.44 |
Gatherings: Up to 101-1000 International: Quarantine
high-risk |
|
20211026 |
40.74 |
Schools: Open |
|
20211201 |
43.52 |
International: Ban some arrivals Face covering: Required when with others |
On the face of it, not much to see here, except that case growth is starting to pick up. But the Portuguese have already announced “post-Christmas curbs”: [[10]]. The reason becomes obvious when you look at the cases graph:
Omicron, welcome to Portugal!
Spain
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210717 |
50.46 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended
closed, Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to <=10
(Regional), Public transport: Open, Stay at home: Required with exceptions
(Regional), Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals, Face
covering: Required in some places |
|
20210720 |
47.69 |
International: Quarantine high-risk |
|
20210722 |
47.69 |
Testing: Open |
|
20210915 |
42.13 |
Stay at home: No measures |
|
20211001 |
43.98 |
Workplaces: Some closed (Regional) Face covering: Required when with others |
|
20211009 |
41.2 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional) |
|
20211129 |
43.98 |
International: Ban some arrivals |
This looks more than slightly similar to neighbour Portugal. And the recent government response is similar, too: [[11]]. The reason is plain:
Sweden
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210701 |
51.85 |
Schools: Open, Workplaces: Recommended closed, Events: Recommended
cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public transport: Recommended closed,
Stay at home: Recommended, Travel: Recommended not to travel, International:
Ban some arrivals, Face covering: No measures |
|
20210715 |
37.04 |
Workplaces: Open Public transport: Open Travel: No restrictions |
|
20210811 |
37.04 |
Contact tracing: None |
|
20210929 |
19.44 |
Events: Allowed Gatherings: No restrictions Stay at home: No measures |
There have been more restrictions brought in recently: [[12]]. Even the Swedes are in wait-and-see land now. But it’s absolutely clear that their laid-back, low-lockdown strategy has worked well compared with most of the other countries. If they hadn’t lost a lot of people at the very beginning of the epidemic, they would (and should) be laughing at the rest of us by now.
Switzerland
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210721 |
40.74 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Recommended
closed, Events: Recommended cancelled, Gatherings: Up to 11-100, Public
transport: Open, Stay at home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions,
International: Ban some arrivals, Face covering: Required in some places |
|
20210913 |
50 |
Workplaces: Some closed Events: Mandatory cancelled |
|
20211205 |
46.3 |
Workplaces: Recommended closed |
|
20211220 |
53.7 |
Workplaces: Mandatory closed Face covering: Required when with others |
Like the Austrians, their ICU situation made it inevitable that the Swiss would lock down. Otherwise, they seem to be using a similar strategy to the Belgians, with closing workplaces and cancelling events as their punishments of choice.
UK
|
Date |
Stringency |
Measures |
|
20210719 |
43.98 |
Schools: Recommended closed, Workplaces: Some closed
(Regional), Events: Recommended cancelled (Regional), Gatherings: Up to
<=10 (Regional), Public transport: Recommended closed (Regional), Stay at
home: No measures, Travel: No restrictions, International: Ban some arrivals,
Face covering: Required when with others (Regional) |
|
20210910 |
41.2 |
Gatherings: Up to 11-100 (Regional) |
|
20211018 |
46.76 |
Events: Mandatory cancelled (Regional) |
|
20211215 |
48.61 |
Workplaces: Some closed Events: Mandatory cancelled International: Quarantine high-risk |
Sajid Javid’s efforts as health secretary so far have, under the circumstances, been exemplary. And it is exceedingly rare for me ever to say anything nice about any politician! He has made his predecessor look like <insert swear word of your choice>. He even seems to have persuaded his boss to carry on with his strategy, at least in England and for now: [[13]].
Despite record new cases, my reading of the data is that
he has steered the UK into a better position to deal with omicron than anyone
else among the 14 except Sweden and Denmark. And as I write these words, the
new UK cases for 25th, 26th and 27th December
have come in on Worldometers. 113.2K, 107.5K and 98.5K, respectively. The
apparent decline over the three days, I think, is probably spurious and due to
late reporting over the holiday period. But at least, the situation isn’t
getting exponentially worse, as the alarmists would have us believe. And even
the Guardian has caught a mood of optimism: [[14]].
Meanwhile, here’s the graph of hospital occupancy per
case:
Is that a slight “knee-bend” I see in the middle of November? Maybe; maybe not. What I can say is that hospitalizations per case were around 25% on November 10th, and have dropped to 12% as at December 20th. A drop comparable to that in the Netherlands, and certainly not inconsistent with omicron having a significantly lower risk of hospitalization than delta.
Turn of the COVID tide?
I won’t even try to write a “To sum up” section, because the data (not to mention the stories in the media) are all over the place. But I do share the Guardian’s optimism, about COVID in the UK at least. Turn of the tide? We shall see.
[[1]] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/if-omicron-is-the-dominant-variant-in-uk-why-is-the-number-of-confirmed-cases-so-low
[[2]] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/23/omicron-cases-at-much-lower-risk-of-hospital-admission-uk-says
[[3]] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/belgium-coronavirus-belgium-omicron-cases-belgium-omicron-variant-belgiums-new-curbs-as-omicron-cases-rise-to-30-of-new-infections-2666413
[[5]] https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/more-than-90-of-omicron-cases-in-denmark-are-vaccinated-individuals-government-data-show/
[[7]] https://www.luxtimes.lu/en/luxembourg/lawmakers-set-to-approve-tighter-measures-as-omicron-spreads-61c58fd8de135b923656b584
[[8]] https://www.businessinsider.com/netherlands-lockdown-christmas-as-omicron-cases-explode-2021-12?r=US&IR=T
[[9]] https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-variant-was-detected-netherlands-before-s-africa-flights-2021-11-30/
[[10]] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugal-imposes-post-christmas-covid-19-curbs-omicron-cases-surge-2021-12-21/
[[11]] https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-12-27/the-perfect-storm-of-spains-sixth-coronavirus-wave-omicron-is-spreading-at-christmas-with-few-restrictions-in-place-and-waning-immunity.html
[[12]] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-tightens-covid-restrictions-cases-mount-2021-12-21/
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