As a Reform UK interim campaigns manager in Surrey, where
voters have this year been denied the chance to elect a new county council, I
have had to watch from the sidelines as those who have had the opportunity to
campaign have gone about their business. I confess that at one level I was very
relieved at not having to “perform” this time round, as I have been, and still
am, recovering from a broken arm. But it’s always frustrating to have your
progress blocked while others are able to move forwards.
I am, obviously, very pleased at the party’s results from
Thursday, not least in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. But amidst all the
partying, I thought it would be useful to produce a reasonably objective
summary of the Reform positions of control and of promise, which have resulted
from the May 1st local elections.
Mayoral elections
Reform won the mayoral races in Greater Lincolnshire
(population 1.1 million as of 2021) and Hull and East Yorkshire, an area with a
population of about 600,000. Both of these were new mayoral positions. I wish
Andrea Jenkyns and Luke Campbell every success in their challenging new jobs. And
I hope they will take the opportunity to show the people that mayors can be a
benefit to the people they serve; unlike those such as Sadiq Khan!
Doncaster
Doncaster has a unitary council, but also has a mayor. While
the Labour incumbent retained the mayoralty by a narrow margin over the Reform
candidate, Reform won 37 seats on the council, giving Reform a majority. This
could produce some interesting results. Particularly if the mayor tried to
impose hard-left Labour policies on, for example, transport or nett zero, by
riding roughshod over the people and the Reform councillors who represent them.
County councils
But it was at the county council level that Reform excelled,
taking 31% of all the votes cast. Repeat that vote share nationwide at a
general election, and…
Reform controlled
Of the 22 county councils which held elections, Reform took control
with an overall majority of the seats in nine: Derbyshire, Durham, Kent,
Lancashire, Lincolnshire, North Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire,
Staffordshire and West Northamptonshire. All these were claimed from the
Tories, except Durham where there was previously no overall control.
The total of residents in these county council areas is
about 7.8 million – about 14% of the English population. Together with Hull and
the East Riding, North Lincolnshire and North-East Lincolnshire, this means
that almost 9 million people live in areas where the mayor, county council or
both is now Reform.
It is worth noting that in Heanor, Derbyshire, the
“official” Reform UK candidate beat the ousted former Reform chair, standing as
an Independent, by 385 votes. Between them, they took 61% of the vote. If only our
factions could work together… 😒
It will be interesting to see how well Reform are able to
manage their new-found power, particularly on those issues where Reform UK and
local people together cross swords with Labour’s national policies. This could
turn into a big test of the whole “devolution” idea!
Lib Dem controlled
Three county councils – Shropshire, Oxfordshire and
Cambridgeshire – ended up controlled by the Lib Dems. In Cambridgeshire, Reform
came second equal with the Tories on 10 seats. In Shropshire, the party came
second with 16 seats. Oxfordshire was a relative disappointment, with Reform
gaining only one seat.
No overall control
In the other ten councils, where there is no overall control
by any one party, Reform is now the largest single party on the county councils
in Cornwall, Leicestershire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.
In Cornwall, there is already serious politicking, with the
Lib Dems (two seats behind Reform) trying to set up a ruling coalition that
does not include Reform. The situation is, shall I say, fragmented.
In Leicestershire, Reform has 25 out of 55 seats, with
Tories on 15 and Lib Dems on 11. In Warwickshire, the Reform tally is 23 out of
57. I would not be surprised if potential coalitions with the Tories get
discussed in both; though this is a difficult area in terms of party strategy.
In Worcestershire, Reform’s 27 seats are only two short of an overall majority.
In Devon, Reform has 18 seats out of 60, nine behind the Lib
Dems. I can see the Lib Dems picking the Greens as coalition partners. In
Gloucestershire, Reform came second, but with only 11 seats, and the Lib Dems
are only one short of a majority. In Northumberland, Reform came second on 23
seats out of 69, against the Tories’ 26.
In Hertfordshire, Reform took third place with 14 seats. In
Wiltshire, also third, but only 10 seats. Finally, the Reform tally in
Buckinghamshire is only 3 seats. But all three situations are complicated,
particularly given there are 7 Independent councillors in Wiltshire and no less
than 13 in Buckinghamshire.
How did the Tories do?
The Tories lost control of all the county councils they
previously held, which had elections on May 1st. 🤣. Indeed, the only contest they won was the
mayor’s post in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. Taking it from… wait for it… Labour!
😁
If their performance in Surrey in the last decade or so is
representative of how they have behaved elsewhere, I find this hardly
surprising. We shall see what happens in 2026 at the elections for the new “shadow”
unitary councils.
