Saturday, 19 June 2021

Six Thinkers

Back in 2014, I wrote and self-published a short book called “Honest Common Sense.” In it, I sought to explicate “a brief, radical Philosophy, starting from first principles and aimed at non-academic people.” I diagnosed what I saw as the root of the problems we good people face today: “that we are in a war of the political means versus the economic, the dishonest versus the honest, the state versus Civilization.” And I made some suggestions as to how we might set ourselves to win that war.

But as a friendly thinker, who calls himself Jason Alexander, has told us: “Ideas that are alive, grow and change.” And my ideas are certainly no exception to that rule. Ten months ago, I determined to re-visit my philosophical thinking, and to put it in context with the ideas of others from whom I have drawn material; including Jason Alexander himself. The task has been long and hard. So much so, that this essay introduces a set of no less than six. And all six are long; representing, as they do, the product of ten whole months of hard mental labour.

But I have found the work worthwhile; for in the process, I have found several new insights. New to me, at least. And I’ve gained a clearer grasp of some areas I had thought I already understood. The major new and clarified ideas are all in the areas of ethics and politics; and particularly around the dividing line between them. Happily, these are good areas for thinking people to be looking into in the current, parlous state of human civilization. I hope that these ideas may, perhaps, help to suggest some fresh possibilities for how we humans might go about re-claiming our rights and freedoms, and bringing to the enemies of humanity the justice they deserve.

One observation before I begin. We are living in a strange time, in which virtually the entire intellectual class in Western countries has become corrupted. The reason is not far to seek. Academics and other intellectuals are, with only a few exceptions (and most of those are in their 70s or older), all bought and paid for by the state. So, we cannot expect today’s professional thinkers to do anything to help human civilization or human freedom; for they cannot, or will not, go against their paymasters. That means that amateurs like me have to step up to the plate.

Six parts

In this, the first essay of the set, I’ll review some of the ideas of six thinkers who have influenced me. In chronological order of their births: Aristotle, John Locke, Franz Oppenheimer, Ayn Rand, Jason Alexander and Frank van Dun. In the second part, I’ll seek to put our situation today into historical context, and to draw out some rhythms of human history. I shall be making particular use of the ideas of Jason Alexander in that exercise.

In the third part, I’ll give a broad outline of my updated philosophical framework, which I’m provisionally labelling “Honest Common Sense 2.0.” I’ll also compare and contrast my approach with the philosophy of our enemies; the political classes and their hangers-on, that collectively I label the “Downers.”

In the fourth and fifth parts, I’ll describe my system in more detail. And I’ll sketch out a possible future system of minimal government. I call it “just governance,” and I describe its remit as: “to enable people to live together in an environment of peace and tranquillity, common-sense justice, and maximum rights and freedom for every individual.” Finally, in the sixth part, I’ll offer some thoughts on how we might seek to move from where we are today towards a better world.

So, to the ideas of my six thinkers.

Aristotle’s contribution

It’s hard to write much about philosophy without mentioning Aristotle. Though I almost achieved that with “Honest Common Sense,” citing only his description of Man as “a political animal.” Today, I’ll repair my oversight.

Aristotle lived in the 4th century BC, the high tide of classical Athens. He was born in 384 BC, and he died in the year, 322 BC, that Athenian democracy was suppressed by the Macedonians. He wrote on many subjects; and a considerable body of his work survived, even though much more did not. As well as works on nature, including tracts presaging physics and biology, he wrote substantial works on philosophical topics: metaphysics, logic, ethics and politics. He also wrote on drama and rhetoric. And he, or one of his school, wrote a treatise on economics.

His Metaphysics is regarded as difficult. Though it did, in time, influence many thinkers; not only other Greeks, but the Muslim philosophers of the 10th to 12th centuries, and the later Scholastics too. His works on logic are still studied today; and it’s said that the treatments of logic by mathematicians like George Boole and Gottlob Frege are in harmony with the Aristotelian tradition.

Now, I’m the kind of person who doesn’t like to read too deeply into what other people think about a topic. I prefer, like Richard Feynman, to read just enough to understand the basics, then to try to re-develop the subject in my own way. So, I approached Aristotle’s Ethics (in the excellent translation by W. D. Ross) in the spirit of “are we thinking along much the same lines?” To which, my answer was Yes.

Ethics is about how individuals ought best to live. And Aristotle was perhaps the first to tackle the subject from a practical point of view. I like his approach of starting from what would be roughly agreed on by ordinary people of good up-bringing and with extensive life experience. It mirrors my own attraction to the idea of honest common sense.

For Aristotle, the highest good is what he called eudaimonia; often translated as well-being, happiness or flourishing. I’d use “fulfilment” myself, but we’re on the same path. I can also agree with his advocacy of self-sufficiency. Not of the hermit’s kind, but as someone who fully contributes to his friends and associates; who, in my terms, gives as good as he gets.

I liked his respect for reasoning things through, for articulate speech, and for being open to persuasion through reason. I agreed with him that humans naturally have the potential to be good. Though I would go further, and say that humans are naturally good; even though, obviously, some among us fail to achieve that natural goodness. I agreed, too, that “virtue also is in our own power, and so too vice.” And that everyone ought to have an innate vision of what is good. “One must be born with an eye, as it were, by which to judge rightly and choose what is truly good, and he is well endowed by nature who is well endowed with this.” Today, we might use the word conscience to describe this eye.

Further, in his Rhetoric he talks of a universal law. He says: “Universal law is the law of Nature. For there really is, as every one to some extent divines, a natural justice and injustice that is binding on all men, even on those who have no association or covenant with each other.” And, quoting Sophocles: “Not of to-day or yesterday it is, but lives eternal: none can date its birth.”

I didn’t, however, find Aristotle’s discussion of justice in the Ethics so enlightening. The distinction between lawful/unlawful on one hand, and fair/unfair (or just/unjust, or equal/unequal) on the other, is good. But trying to follow it through is a mind-bending exercise. Even today, it would be hard to find two people who agree on the precise meanings of the words equality, fairness and justice.

Much as I liked many of Aristotle’s ethical ideas, I tended to dislike his political ideas. Right at the start of the Politics (in Benjamin Jowett’s translation), he says: “If all communities aim at some good, the state or political community, which is the highest of all, and which embraces all the rest, aims at good in a greater degree than any other, and at the highest good.” Aristotle, like his teacher Plato, considered the city-state to be more important than the individuals and families who comprised it.

As to the (in-)famous “political animal,” here’s the quote: “Hence it is evident that the state is a creation of nature, and that man is by nature a political animal.” I can’t agree; though I won’t criticize Aristotle for using the top-down word political. For in his time there would not yet have been a word like “civilized” – or the one I prefer, “convivial” – to convey the meaning of good people simply living together for mutual benefit.

A little later, he says: “A social instinct is implanted in all men by nature.” Correct. And: “Man, when perfected, is the best of animals.” Double plus good! But then: “If he has not virtue, he is the most unholy and the most savage of animals, and the most full of lust and gluttony.” Maybe he dimly anticipated what would happen when the most unholy, savage, inhuman animals – like Hitler, Stalin or Pol Pot – and their soulmates take over a state, and run it for their own ends. But he still thought of the state as the highest of all.

To be fair to Aristotle, in his Politics he does survey many different political structures of his time, and points out some of the things that were wrong with them. He lists what he sees as three true forms of government – kingly rule, aristocracy and constitutional government – and three perversions: tyranny, oligarchy and democracy. And he says: “Tyranny is a kind of monarchy which has in view the interest of the monarch only; oligarchy has in view the interest of the wealthy; democracy, of the needy: none of them the common good of all.” He surely was right on that last point!

Near the end, he paints a picture of his ideal state. As to how many people it should contain, he says: “If the citizens of a state are to judge and to distribute offices according to merit, then they must know each other’s characters.” And: “Clearly then the best limit of the population of a state is the largest number which suffices for the purposes of life, and can be taken in at a single view.” Aristotle’s ideal community is big enough to be economically self-sufficient, yet small enough that people can know each other fairly well. I concur with that.

John Locke’s contribution

John Locke (1632-1704) is one of my heroes. For far more reasons than just our similar surnames. I have many times been asked whether I am descended from him. To which I have to reply, no; for it is fairly well established that he had no children.

Locke was born in Somerset, and educated at Westminster School and Christ Church college, Oxford. He became a fellow of the college (then known as a “student”) in 1658; where he taught Greek, rhetoric and moral philosophy. He had many other interests, too: notably medicine, experimental science, and the ideas of progressive philosophers like Descartes.

After Oxford, he took on a second career as personal physician to an eminent politician of the day, Lord Shaftesbury. He also found time to pursue a third career as a government bureaucrat; being secretary of several commissions, and in his last years Commissioner of Excise Appeals. In 1683, he had to flee for six years to Holland, due to his connections with Shaftesbury, and having been involved with some of the perpetrators of the Rye House Plot.

His philosophical interests were wide. He wrote a number of works on religion, in which he promoted tolerance. He ventured into epistemology, with his “Essay Concerning Human Understanding.” While his ideas were not accepted by all, they proved useful to several later thinkers, including David Hume. He wrote on money and economics, and wrote manuals on educating children and on rational thought. He also, as you might expect, wrote on ethics; but those writings were not collected and published in his time. Scholars say that he combined a natural-law view based on the supremacy of God, with an, apparently contradictory, view that what causes pleasure is good, and what causes pain is bad.

But it is on his political philosophy that his fame rests. In particular, on his Two Treatises of Government, written in the early 1680s and first published at the end of 1689. In the First Treatise, he utterly demolishes the idea that kings have a “divine right” to rule. (It’s well worth a read, for the way he does it). In the Second, he lays the foundations for Enlightenment political philosophy, and for a more individual-friendly idea of government. This one is even more worth the read. These works have led to Locke being called the father of liberalism.

Locke saw the natural condition for human beings as: “a state of perfect freedom to order their actions, and dispose of their possessions and persons as they think fit, within the bounds of the law of Nature, without asking leave or depending upon the will of any other man. A state also of equality, wherein all the power and jurisdiction is reciprocal, no one having more than another.” Moreover: “The state of Nature has a law of Nature to govern it, which obliges every one. And reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind who will but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty or possessions.” And, he says, natural law is “plain and intelligible to all rational creatures.”

Locke saw the necessity of some kind of government. “The great and chief end, therefore, of men uniting into commonwealths, and putting themselves under government, is the preservation of their property; to which in the state of Nature there are many things wanting.” But he also knew that, in reality, governments often don’t deliver what they ought to. Many of the “municipal laws of countries,” he said, were no more than “the fancies and intricate contrivances of men, following contrary and hidden interests put into words.” Such laws are “only so far right as they are founded on the law of Nature.” And: “The end of law is not to abolish or restrain, but to preserve and enlarge freedom.”

Moreover, there must be limits on government power. “Their power in the utmost bounds of it is limited to the public good of the society. It is a power that hath no other end but preservation, and therefore can never have a right to destroy, enslave, or designedly to impoverish the subjects.” And the public good is: “the good of every particular member of that society, as far as by common rules it can be provided for.”

He also said that humans, bound together by the natural law common to them all, “are one community, make up one society distinct from all other creatures.” And “were it not for the corruption and viciousness of degenerate men, there would be… no necessity that men should separate from this great and natural community, and associate into lesser combinations.”

Franz Oppenheimer’s contribution

Franz Oppenheimer (1864-1943), a German Jewish thinker, is mainly remembered for his analysis of the political state in his best-known book, The State (1908). But his varied career has parallels with that of John Locke. His first field of study was medicine, and he practised as a doctor for almost a decade. After this, he became a magazine editor. At 45 years old, his doctoral thesis was on the subject of economics; and for the rest of his working life, he was an academic. He managed to get out of nazi Germany in 1938, and made his way via Shanghai to Los Angeles, where he died in 1943.

Oppenheimer considered himself a liberal socialist. He was no lover of “capitalism.” He regarded it as exploitation, often equating it with slavery. But he was also no lover of the state, which he defined as: “an organisation of one class dominating over the other classes.”

For me, by far his greatest insight is his famous distinction between the economic means and the political means. “There are two fundamentally opposed means whereby man, requiring sustenance, is impelled to obtain the necessary means for satisfying his desires. These are work and robbery, one's own labor and the forcible appropriation of the labor of others… I propose in the following discussion to call one's own labor and the equivalent exchange of one's own labor for the labor of others, the ‘economic means’ for the satisfaction of needs, while the unrequited appropriation of the labor of others will be called the ‘political means.’” Further: “All world history, from primitive times up to our own civilization, presents a single phase, a contest namely between the economic and the political means.” And: “The state is an organization of the political means.”

Oppenheimer ended his book on an optimistic note. He foresaw a new political system, which he called a “freemen’s citizenship,” taking over the world. This system, he predicted, “will have changed its vital element by the disappearance of the economic exploitation of one class by another.” Such optimism was understandable in 1908, after half a century or more of peace and progress in most of Europe. But just a few years later, I expect, he would have been far less optimistic.

Moreover, he did not foresee that the state’s abuses would spread far beyond the economic sphere. He did not foresee the rise of political ideologies and agendas – such as communism, fascism, and later environmentalism – that would provide excuses for states to rule over ordinary people without any concern at all for their rights or freedoms. He did not foresee the state apparatus becoming bigger and bigger, and more and more intrusive. And he did not foresee that, 30 years later, he himself would have to flee Germany to avoid becoming a victim of genocide.

Ayn Rand’s contribution

I certainly wouldn’t describe myself as an Ayn Rand groupie. And I don’t much like the way her intellectual heirs have sought, since her death, to close off the philosophy that she called Objectivism, and to set it in stone. It has far too much smell of church for me. But in my time in the freedom movement, I have known many Randians, and even some fully fledged Objectivists. Since Jason Alexander, whom I mentioned above, has a Randian background, I thought it might be useful, before going on to his ideas, to take a look at a few of Rand’s.

For those who don’t know of her, Ayn Rand (as she was later to call herself) was born into a Russian Jewish family in St. Petersburg in 1905. While in Russia, she studied history and literature, and set herself to work towards a career as a screenwriter. The primary influence on her philosophical thinking was the work of Aristotle.

In 1926 she was allowed to go to the USA, and she decided to stay, taking US citizenship in 1931. With time, she became more and more strongly anti-communist and pro-free-market. She had Broadway success with a courtroom drama, albeit with many difficulties on the way. After this, she concentrated more on writing novels. Her two most successful novels were The Fountainhead (1943) and Atlas Shrugged (1957), both of which have acquired cult status among her followers. But she was never accepted by the intellectual establishment. In the 1960s she switched to promoting her philosophical system, which she called Objectivism, through writing non-fiction and giving lectures. She died in 1982.

The central idea of Rand’s system is that five of the branches of ancient Greek philosophy – Metaphysics, Epistemology, Ethics, Politics, Aesthetics – form a hierarchy or stack. Or, as I like to put it, they fit together like a layer cake, in which each layer builds on the ones below it.  I’m told this idea pre-dated Rand. But she (rightly) seized on it, and used it as a corner-stone of her philosophy. I have diagrammed below the five branches, with the questions addressed by each level, as given on an Objectivist “Importance of Philosophy” website.

Figure 1 – Overview of Ayn Rand’s system (Objectivism)

These look to me like some pretty good questions to be going on with (as long as you read them from the bottom up). Though I’m not sure about the wording of the politics question. Permissible for whom? Permissible by whom? I also wonder whether Aesthetics is the right branch to have up there at the top of the tree, and why Economics isn’t in the stack at all?

To Metaphysics first. Objectivism holds that the universe we live in is real; or, in Rand’s words, “existence exists.” That there is just one reality, the one in which we live. And that humans have free will, even if we don’t yet understand exactly how it works. I can agree with all of these. I can also agree with the idea that to exist is to be something; which Rand put in the famous John Galt speech in Atlas Shrugged as “existence is identity.”

As to Epistemology, I agree with the thrust of her ideas; that we turn sense data into percepts or specific thoughts, then generalize them into more abstract concepts, then assemble them using logic into conclusions. Then we pass the conclusions through our bullshit meters; we check them against reality. To that last process, Rand gave the name Objectivity. Myself, I add one more layer. I place Science – the best methodology we have yet discovered for finding new knowledge – at the top of the epistemological tree.

I can’t, however, agree with Rand that the perception process is flawless. Rather, I prefer her advice to “Check your premises,” to avoid errors due to mis-perceiving or mis-remembering.

Overall, I was pleasantly surprised to find how close my own ideas in this area – as I put them in “Honest Common Sense” – are to Rand’s. Particularly since this area was one of her greatest strengths. It may be because I had read about the epistemology of the Stoics, on which Rand grounded her thinking in this area. Or perhaps, years ago, I listened to someone expound Rand’s ideas; and took in an awful lot more than I appreciated at the time. Including, even, some of her terminology. It may also have something to do with the fact that, having been trained long ago as a mathematician, I tend to think in a bottom-up way, building new ideas on top of what I already know; just as Rand’s approach does.

On to Ethics. Here, something Rand wrote in a 1964 essay called “The Objectivist Ethics,” grabbed my attention. “The fact that a living entity is, determines what it ought to do. So much for the issue of the relation between ‘is’ and ‘ought.’” The point she was making was that different kinds of living entity need to behave in different ways in order to preserve, and to make good use of, their lives. Plants, for example, can obtain their food without effort, from the soil in which they grow. Animals, in contrast, need to act with purpose in order to obtain food; for example, by hunting. And humans must do more still; as rational beings, they have to think and to do productive work, in order to satisfy their needs.

But in my opinion, the words she used understated her case. I would have said: What a living entity is, determines what it ought to do. Meaning, the identity of a living being determines how it should behave. Otherwise put: Identity determines morality. What is right and wrong for a lion or a giraffe, say, comes from their natures. A lion by nature hunts and eats animals such as zebras; a giraffe picks leaves, fruits or flowers off tall trees. If they tried to exchange behaviours, the new behaviours would be wrong for both. And so, both would go hungry.

For humans, all this leads us back to Aristotle’s “eye, by which to judge rightly and choose what is truly good.” What is right and wrong for human beings to do, comes from human nature. Thus, it is the same for all human beings. It’s also not far away from John Locke’s “law of Nature,” or from the natural law of people like Thomas Aquinas.

Although I base my ethical views on rights ahead of virtues, I do like Rand’s list of virtues. Rationality: acting according to facts and reason. Independence: forming your own judgements, and living by your own efforts; like Aristotle’s self-sufficiency. Integrity: not sacrificing your convictions to the opinions or wishes of others. Honesty: which Rand defines as never attempting to fake reality. Justice: not seeking for yourself, or allowing to others, what is not deserved or earned. Productiveness: creating value for others. And Pride: a rational respect for yourself. Not the kind of pride that goes before a fall, but the kind that comes after deserved achievement.

Moreover, Rand recognizes that individual rights are key. Though her conception of rights isn’t as broad as mine. She, rightly, rejects the use or threat of initiatory force to violate life, property, or security of person. But she doesn’t extend that to violations of other fundamental rights such as privacy, or rights of non-impedance such as the freedom to distribute your ideas. And Objectivism says that rights are absolute; while for me, your rights are, in part at least, conditional on your respecting the equal rights of others.

I do, however, agree with Rand that property rights are a direct extension of the right to life. As are the rights both to self-defence, and to means of self-defence sufficient to deal with the level of threat that you are likely to meet.

Next, Politics. Like Rand and John Locke, I seek a minimalist form of governance. For I agree with Tom Paine that “government is a necessary evil.” It is, regrettably, necessary to organize ourselves to deliver justice, and to stop the bad guys and gals from harming us. But my idea of governance is some way from the Objectivist take. I don’t self-identify as an “anarchist,” but I have as much contempt for the state – which I see as a system that allows moral privileges to an élite, that enable them to rule over others – as any anarchist does.

In particular, I can’t agree with Rand that some group of people should be allowed a monopoly of force. For me, everyone has the right, at need, to use appropriate force in self-defence, in defence of others or in delivering justice. I also don’t accept that some particular person or clique of people should be privileged to invent new laws by which to bind others. For such laws are apt to become, in John Locke’s words, “the fancies and intricate contrivances of men, following contrary and hidden interests put into words.”

And then there’s capitalism, for which Rand had a very high regard. So much so, that Objectivists see laissez-faire capitalism not just as an economic system, but as the only moral social system. Now, I’m rather leery of this word, because it’s very often misunderstood. Franz Oppenheimer, for one, seems to have misunderstood it; for he saw in capitalism the exploitation that can arise when the dishonest run economic enterprises, but not the positive benefits to all parties which capitalism brings when done with honesty and integrity.

My own approach makes the distinction between true capitalism, an economic system founded on property rights in a free market, and crony capitalism, a system in which corporate recipients of state favour are able to make themselves rich. The first kind of capitalism is good; the second is bad. So, on this matter, I will agree with Rand’s sentiments, but not with her specific choice of word.

To the top of the tree: Aesthetics. Surely, Aesthetics is important; but I think it ought to have some companions in that box. Creativity, for one. For no-one can appreciate a work of art, or literature, or music until someone has created that work. And I’d put Economics in there, too. Because economic creativity and trade are what enable human beings to flourish sufficiently, to have resources and time to enjoy and appreciate the finer things in life.

Jason Alexander’s contribution

Of my six thinkers, Jason Alexander is the least well known. I met him only once, in San Francisco in 1990; and I corresponded with him on and off until about 2002. I’m not even sure whether he is still alive.

Jason Alexander likes to write short books. And his prose is often very pithy. It was he who told me: “Ideas that are alive, grow and change.” Another of my favourites among his aphorisms is: “In the world of ideas, employment is coin of the realm.” Here are some more: “Nature is an extraordinarily powerful ally.” “Given presumes no giver.” “Politics is passé.” “Scholars are paid to quarrel.” And his dismissal of our enemies as “the three P’s: Priests, Politicians and Professors.”

Only one of his books, a 1978 fable called “Why Johnny Can’t,” is still in print. His master-work, “Philoscience,” was published in 1991. But it was quickly removed from the bookshelves; I assume for lawsuit reasons. Luckily, I had already bought a copy. Which still sits in my bookcase, alongside two of his other books from the 1980s.

I have diagrammed Jason Alexander’s system as follows.

Figure 2 – Overview of Jason Alexander’s system (Philoscience)

Beyond Ayn Rand’s scheme which I discussed earlier, he brings some new and elevating ideas. First, he makes explicit the hierarchy of the five branches. He says: “Each more complex category is built upon and depends on the one below it.” He also gives names to the processes of moving up or down the stack. Understanding is movement up the stack, from the bottom upwards. Each layer stands under, or underpins, the ones above it; and the individual, whose thinking moves in this direction, acquires understanding. The top-down direction of movement, on the other hand, is Overstanding. Or, if you prefer a word from a Latin root, Superstition. I myself prefer to call these directions “bottom-up” and “top-down.”

Second, he has identified the subject matter, not as five branches, but as five dimensions. As you go up the stack, each dimension adds a new direction and a new richness to the whole. And he has given his own names to the dimensions; in English, rather than Greek. Identity is what things are. Identification is how we know it. The ethical dimension, he labels Choice. Though I give it a rather different moniker, conviviality; a word I have borrowed from Frank van Dun, and which I’ll explain a little later. The political dimension he calls Civilization. And the highest level, which he says (and I agree) corresponds to a lot more than just Aesthetics, he dubs Creativity.

I have found these ideas of Understanding and dimensions most helpful. Particularly in the fourth dimension, where they have enabled me clearly to distinguish Civilization (organizing community and social structures from the bottom up, fuelled by Understanding) from Politics (organizing them from the top down, fuelled by Overstanding).

But after Understanding and the five dimensions, the key element in Alexander’s thinking for me is his view of history, which he calls Ages and Stages. In this view, human history to date reflects the long battle of our species to open up our dimensions. At any time, Revolutionaries – whom he also calls Lovers of Knowledge – are battling to open up the next new dimension. That’s you and me, folks! And the times in which we succeed – when we open up, and start to explore, a new dimension – are Revolutions. But these are not necessarily political revolutions. As Alexander says: “Revolution need not be violent and Revolutionaries need not be revolting.” Against us, on the other hand, are arrayed the reactionaries, that he calls Lovers of Wisdom or LOWers. These are our enemies, seeking to prevent us progressing to the next level, or even to haul us back down towards where we started from.

I shall be covering Ages and Stages in some detail in the second essay in this set. In which, I will take the liberty of modifying Jason Alexander’s list of the five Revolutions somewhat, to align it more closely with my own perception of the rhythms of human history.

I’ll end this section with two Jason Alexander quotes. The first sums up where we are today. “The current surface fomentation against politicians is only symptomatic of a deeper revolution that is brewing. That deeper revolution is identification of ‘us and them.’ It is time to understand who ‘we’ are, and perhaps more effectively in the short run, who ‘they’ are.”

The second quote comes from a small booklet called “The Environment of Freedom,” which he prepared to accompany his speech for the occasion in 1990 on which I met him. He foresaw “a species separation on the order of the Neanderthal extinction.” Strong stuff!

Frank van Dun’s contribution

The last of my six thinkers is Frank van Dun (born 1947). He is a Belgian philosopher of law, and I have known him since 1995. His three main contributions to my philosophical thinking all come from a paper called “Concepts of Order,” written in 2006 as part of a tribute to Anthony de Jasay. The paper seems no longer to be available on his website, but Anthony Flood has preserved it at his site: [[1]].

Van Dun’s first contribution is a single word: “convivial.” This he conceived as a translation of the Dutch samenleving, meaning living together. But for a native English speaker like me, the word has also a secondary meaning, of feasting in good company. Thus, I interpret “convivial” to mean living together well. So, using this word I can correct Aristotle’s “Man is by nature a political animal” to: Humans are by nature convivial animals. It is our nature, not just to live together, but to live together for mutual benefit.

His second contribution came when I noticed that he was using this word in two different contexts: one ethical, one political. He talks of “the laws of conviviality,” which “must be discovered; they need not be invented.” This is the ethical side. There is a code of conduct which, if adhered to, renders an individual convivial; or otherwise said, fit to be lived with.

On the other side, he also talks of the “convivial order.” This is an order in which “people live together regardless of their membership, status, position, role or function in any, let alone the same, society.” This is the political half. He describes the order as anarchical, and maintained by, among other things, a mixture of prudence and common decency.

I had an aha! after I linked the two together in one sentence: The convivial order is the order which results when everyone keeps to the laws of conviviality. Now, Aristotle said: “Law is order.” But no! I thought. Law and order are not the same thing! Order is political; law is ethical. Order is what results, when law – that is, a suitable ethical code – is obeyed. That aha! has enabled me greatly to clarify the boundary between ethics and politics within my updated system.

Frank van Dun’s third contribution, in the same paper, is to confirm for me that what is right and wrong for a human being to do comes from the nature of human beings. He says: “What natural persons can or cannot do is not defined by any set of legal rules.  It is defined by their nature, which we have to accept as ‘a given’ and to study accordingly.”

To sum up

So, what have I learned from each of these six thinkers?

From Aristotle, I have gained a wide perspective, particularly on ethical matters; and a sense that my own ideas are not so far away from those of some of the great thinkers of the past. From John Locke, I have gained an understanding and appreciation of natural law, and of political philosophy. And Franz Oppenheimer has helped me to appreciate the vastness of the chasm between economic and political ways of doing things; and thus, between us human beings and our enemies.

From Ayn Rand, I have gained confidence that my thinking at the levels of metaphysics and epistemology is pointing in broadly the right direction. And it was her effort to bypass David Hume’s “is/ought problem” which first set me thinking about the relation between ethics and the nature of the species. From Jason Alexander, I have learned about the five dimensions of being human, about how they fit together, and about the revolutionary wars in which we have engaged in order to open them up. And Frank van Dun has not only given me the word convivial, but has also helped me find the dividing line between ethics and politics.

And I’ve learned two more things. One, I now feel that as a philosopher I have things to say, which go beyond any of my six. And two, now seems like a good time to say them.

Monday, 14 June 2021

Young Things Growing

More recent photos from my local lake. Anyone who thinks wildlife is suffering because of human activities needs to look at the evidence.


The White Goose (Grandma) leads the flotilla back towards home


Mother (off stage left): How did your game of cricket go?
Captain: We all scored ducks


My favo(u)rite proof-reading spot


It ain't easy swimming green


Coming up for air... oh dear, now I have to keep the aspidistra flying


Not goslings, but guzzlings


Lizard to bird: Why are you standing on one leg?
(I couldn't decipher the bird's response, but it wasn't kind)


Come on, you silly boy. Take some photos of us land animals, too!


Tuesday, 25 May 2021

COVID-19: World Report, Omnibus Edition (Lockdowns)


This paper is the companion to my recent report on the medical aspects of COVID-19: cases, deaths, tests and vaccinations. Today, I’ll look at lockdowns from a world-wide perspective, following on from my report on lockdowns in Europe a few weeks ago.

As for the previous report, the data I am using, from Our World in Data and the Blavatnik School of Government (both at Oxford University), runs up to May 15th 2021.

Average Lockdown

I decided to change slightly the way in which I average lockdowns to give overall measures of lockdown. Rather than using the Blavatnik stringency figure directly, I decided to calculate separately the average level over all days of the epidemic for each kind of lockdown (schools, workplaces, public events, gatherings, public transport, stay at home, internal travel restrictions, international travel restrictions), then average these eight to give an “Average Lockdown %.” This has the effect of reducing the result compared with the Blavatnik stringency. I also revised the way I calculated the percentage of time spent in full lockdowns, so that it used the same list of eight kinds of lockdown as the Average Lockdown % measure.

The first reason for these changes was to exclude Public Information Campaign, which is not a policy measure but is included in the Blavatnik stringency (and almost always, almost everywhere, contributes 11.11% to it). The second rationale was to exclude any consideration of Face Coverings, which is not counted in the Blavatnik stringency, in either averaging process. It is, however, still possible to assess the stringency of Face Coverings lockdown against the average of the rest.

I’ll start with the top 20 and bottom 20 countries in Average Lockdown percentage over all eight kinds of lockdown and over the entire course of the epidemic. 18 out of the 190 countries which have reported cases have not provided stringency data; so, there are 172 countries in the list from which these selections are chosen:


Ouch! People in Honduras, Libya, Venezuela, Argentina and Eritrea have been locked down, on average, at over 72% on every single day of the epidemic since January 24th, 2020! Their Freedom House ratings out of 100 are respectively 45, 9, 16, 85 (!) and 2 (equal lowest in the world – worse even than North Korea). India is in the top 20, too; but it doesn’t seem to have helped them much recently.

At the other end of the scale, though, Nicaragua, Burundi, Belarus and Tanzania are not much noted for freedom either – with scores of 31, 13, 19 and 40. But Belarus has done well against the epidemic so far; as have Tanzania and Burundi. And Nicaragua too, if I can believe their figures. Moreover, there are three countries in that bottom 20 with Freedom House ratings over 90 – Taiwan, New Zealand and Japan. And, as my previous report shows, Taiwan and New Zealand are in the bottom 20 in both cases and deaths per million population. So, this gives the lie to the notion that stringent lockdowns and success against the virus necessarily go together.

Here’s a plot of average lockdown percentage against Freedom House rating world-wide:

Not much “trend” there at all! I suspect that the places where a government’s general nastiness leads them to lock people down as hard as they think they can get away with, and the places where they are more worried about the economic and psychological consequences of locking down heavily, tend to balance each other out.

And here are world-wide plots of cases and deaths per million against average lockdown percentage:


What those trend lines show is that world-wide, each percent of increase in lockdown (averaged over the eight kinds of lockdown listed earlier) is associated with an increase of 612 in total cases per million and an increase of 13.3 in total deaths per million. The likely reason for the two positive trends is that significant spurts in either cases per million or deaths per million are likely to trigger politicians into locking down harder.

Time in Full Lockdowns

The other metric that I used in the European report was the percentage of days during the epidemic that a country is in full lockdown (100% stringency for that particular measure). This can be applied to individual types of lockdown (schools, workplaces, public events, gatherings, public transport, stay at home, travel restrictions, international). Or it can be applied to lockdown as a whole, by averaging the number of days in full lockdown for all eight of the lockdown types above.

In contrast to the earlier European calculation, I did not try to include face coverings in this averaging, since no government has yet imposed a 100% face mask wearing mandate (everywhere outside the home). But I can still assess the effectiveness of face covering mandates against the average of the rest.

Here are the top and bottom 20 in time spent under full lockdowns:


Ouch again! Hondurans, Venezuelans and Libyans have been, on average since January 24th 2020, under four or more full lockdowns out of eight. The Irish are the worst hit in Europe, having been under an average of three full lockdowns out of eight since the epidemic began.

At the other end, China is right down there, third from bottom. I suppose this may be because, in such a large country, full national lockdowns would not be appropriate while the virus is only active in certain provinces. Russia, Indonesia and Brazil are probably down in this group for similar reasons. But India, for some reason, is not.

Here are the plots of cases and deaths per million against average time spent in full lockdowns:


The respective gradients are +702 cases per million and +13.2 deaths per million, both per 1% of time spent under full lockdowns.

Effectiveness of Lockdowns World-wide

When I addressed the effectiveness of lockdowns in Europe, I was using slightly different measures of what constituted a percentage point of average lockdown, and of what constituted a percentage point of full lockdown. I have also switched to using deaths per million rather than cumulative deaths per case, since this is the metric on which the politicians will be judged. Towards the end of the paper, I will, therefore, need to re-work those figures in order to compare the European situation with the world-wide one I will present below.

But I decided to continue with my methodology of plotting cases and deaths per million against stringency for each of the individual kinds of lockdown, then comparing the slopes of the trend lines with the plots above, which give the trends of cases and deaths per million against the average over all eight kinds of lockdown. The method is seat-of-the-pants and lacking in statistical rigour, surely; but it does let me get a feel for the effectiveness of different lockdowns when compared with the average.

I put the results into four graphs, the first of which looks like this:

The blue bars represent the actual trend line gradients, in this chart in cases per million per percentage of average lockdown stringency (averaged over all eight kinds of lockdown, and over the course of the epidemic). The grey bars are the result of subtracting the gradient (+612 cases per million) of the trend line on the graph of cases per million against my new “average lockdown %.” Where a grey bar stretches to the right, this means that a mild lockdown of this kind is less effective in controlling cases per million than other kinds of lockdown. Where a grey bar stretches to the left, this means it is more effective.

In contrast to what I found in Europe, world-wide it seems that face coverings are more effective than any of the other measures in controlling cases per million. These are closely followed by international travel restrictions, internal travel restrictions and public transport closures. Stay at home mandates and school closures are less effective, and restrictions on gatherings, cancellations of public events, and workplace closures, are less effective still.

Here’s the corresponding graph for trends in cases per million against % of full lockdowns:

On a world-wide scale, it seems that even restricting gatherings to the full lockdown level of 10 or less has little effect, and cancelling public events does little more. The most effective full lockdown is stay at home, followed by border closure, followed by the four others in quick succession.

Here are the corresponding graphs for deaths per million:


For controlling deaths per million world-wide, the most effective full lockdown measures are international travel restrictions and public transport closures. These, along with face coverings and internal travel restrictions, have the most effect when the lockdowns are relatively mild. Locking down workplaces is of little utility unless it is a full lockdown; and restrictions on public events and gatherings are surprisingly ineffective.

Specific Lockdowns

Next, a look at which countries have favoured which particular kinds of lockdowns. In most cases, I’ll show only the top 20 lists, as the bottom 20 often has many of the same countries.

It seems that Middle Easterners and Central and South Americans, in particular, tend to prefer to close schools rather than lock down something else.

Strict workplace closures, the worst kind of lockdown of all from the point of view of the general public, are strongly favoured by the usual suspects like Venezuela, Honduras, Eritrea and Libya. But also, by many European countries. Ireland in second place, the UK in sixth, and Italy in seventh fully deserve wooden spoons. Interestingly, China is up there, though it rarely uses full lockdowns.

A bit of a mixed bag; but Italy leads, and Honduras is up there again.

France has been hardest of all on gatherings, closely followed by Monaco and (I repeat myself) Honduras. But Belgium, Portugal, the UK and China are all in the top 20.

For public transport, I think it’s better to use the full lockdowns list, because anything below 100% lockdown is merely a recommended closure or a regional one, not a mandatory national closure.

It seems to be Middle Easterners who like to lock down public transport hardest, followed by Central and South Americans.

It’s the Central and South Americans – including Honduras – who like to force people to stay at home for long periods. China, India and Pakistan are in there, too.

For restrictions on internal travel, I’ll again show the list by full lockdowns, as any less-than-full lockdown here is only a recommendation or regional, not a nation-wide mandate:

Many of the usual suspects again; and Ireland gets a dis-honourable mention, too.

As to international travel restrictions, I’ll show both the top and bottom 20, as there’s shame in being in the bottom 20 if the country’s overall record against the virus is poor:


Australia, New Zealand, Canada – these guys got it right in the early stages. As did Vietnam. In the hall of shame on this one are: Bosnia, Andorra, Mexico, Brazil and the UK.

And, last but not least, face coverings:

It’s south-east Asia which leads on this one. It seems to have done Laos and Singapore no harm; though in Brazil and Peru, at least, it doesn’t seem to have done any good at all.

Comparison with Europe

I thought I would re-work the European numbers from my earlier paper under the new averaging conventions. So, here are the results per percentage of average lockdown, in the same format as above:




Which lockdowns work?

In Europe, face covering mandates and school closures have a negative effect on both cases and deaths per million, relative to the average! Whereas world-wide, they go the other way. Why such a big difference with face masks? Is it cultural – Western people don’t know how to wear face masks effectively? Or, perhaps, could it be that once the virus reaches a certain level of penetration in the population, face masks are a hindrance rather than a help?

Gatherings restrictions seem to work in Europe, but not world-wide.

There is much better agreement on the other lockdowns. To control cases per million, international and internal travel restrictions are the most effective – and closing public transport, if you actually go as far as doing it nationally. To control deaths per million, you need the same three; international and internal travel restrictions, and public transport closures. And when it comes to 100% lockdowns, full workplace lockdowns are effective – but expensive.


Saturday, 22 May 2021

COVID-19: World Report, Omnibus Edition (Medical)

It’s been a long haul, but I have finally been through the data for all 190 countries which have reported cases of COVID-19, and assembled everything into a “master” workbook, from which I can produce spaghetti graphs, histograms, scatterplots and lots more. Here, then, is my first truly world-wide COVID status report; since last June, at any rate.

I shall confine myself today to medical data: cases, tests, deaths and vaccinations carried out. I plan to look at lockdowns world-wide in a separate report. I am also planning to address the efficacy of the vaccines a little later.

The data I am using, from Our World in Data and the Blavatnik School of Government (both at Oxford University), runs up to May 15th 2021.

Cases

Here’s the graph of cumulative cases per million world-wide:

Looking at the smoothness of the curve, I find myself thinking: First wave, second wave, third wave, what was all that about? To think of COVID-19 in those terms is to take a parochial attitude. When you look at the data for the world as a whole, you see a slight slowdown early this year; but otherwise, those numbers are still going up and up.

And 20,000 cases per million is just 2% of the population. Unless the number of recorded cases is a very serious undercount of the actual number of infections (which it certainly was in the early stages, but that’s less clear now), there are an awful lot of people still unexposed.

The daily cases (weekly averaged) are, up to scaling by population, the first derivative of the above:

The “first wave” in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, up to May of last year, now seems like a bad dream. But it’s a bad dream that is still going on. The first sharp peak in the new year was the “second wave” in Europe, and the more recent one is India.

Now, let’s look at cases per million by country. I have a list of all 190, but it’s unwieldy. So, here are the top 20 and the bottom 20:


What do the top 20 have in common? Mostly, they’re in Europe; a lot of them in Eastern Europe. Many are relatively small countries: Andorra, Montenegro, San Marino, Luxembourg, and the Seychelles all have populations under a million. As to the bottom 20, please note the disparity of scales between the two graphs – a factor of around 150 between Georgia at the bottom of the top 20, and New Zealand at the top of the bottom 20. Here, the main factor seems to be isolation. Both in island countries, and in Africa where very few people travel internationally. And there’s something else: Chinese ethnicity. Brunei, Laos, Taiwan and Vietnam – not to mention China itself! – all have high proportions of ethnic Chinese, who might be already more familiar with this kind of virus than other races.

Lastly, a scatterplot of cases per million against the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI):

Well OK, I put in the trend line just for fun. But it’s positive. Probably because the higher the level of development, the more travel people can enjoy. If they’re allowed to.

Weekly case growth and reproduction rate

Here is the graph of the weekly case growth world-wide, and the corresponding reproduction rates (the latter are modelled data):

You can see there what happened at the beginning of the epidemic. In the middle of February 2020, both the R-rate and weekly case growth were way down. There had been a few cases outside China, but nothing much to worry about. Then all of a sudden, in the third week of February, both suddenly climbed to dizzy heights. In a paper last year, I looked at the “onset dates” – the first days when the case rates started to climb significantly – of the virus in various countries. I determined that the outbreak beyond China had begun in earnest in the period from February 19th to 21st, and started in three countries: Iran, Italy and the USA. This coincided with a wave of Chinese business people returning from China after the (prolonged by a week) Chinese New Year celebrations. In hindsight, it seems that they may have brought with them a new, and more virulent, strain than the earlier one.

All that said, it’s reassuring that R-rate and weekly case growth track each other so well; even though the weekly case growth tends to be jumpier. The virus seems to wax and wane in communicability over relatively short periods, often of one to two weeks. It’s also noticeable that the peaks and troughs in weekly case growth tend to come a few days before the peaks and troughs in R-rate. I suspect this may be because I am using centrally averaged weekly cases in my calculation, so if the R-rate is calculated over a week looking back from the day stated, this would produce an offset between the two of about half a week.

Tests

It’s so 2020 to talk about testing again! Back last spring and summer, tests were a big issue. Were they too sensitive, and over-reporting cases? And were the test numbers themselves being over-reported for political reasons?

But as I’ve said before, and say again, I’ll use the numbers I have. So, here are the top 20 countries in tests per hundred thousand:

In every one of these countries, each member of the population has had an average of more than one test. But there’s nothing much to see here. Yet.

Now, another of the metrics I look at is cumulative cases per test over the whole epidemic. Here are the worst and best performers:


Those top 20 are weird. 70% of tests in Brazil have been positive? Since the beginning of the epidemic? Now, most of the top countries in this particular hall of shame are in South and Central America. Perhaps because they were hit by the virus during the time when there was a world-wide shortage of testing kits? But there are also some Eastern Europeans there: Bosnia, Macedonia, Slovenia, to name but three.

But if you already know which countries have been doing better against the epidemic in terms of deaths per million, you will see some familiar names in the bottom 20. Norway, Finland, Iceland, Denmark. South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam. Not to mention Fiji, Australia and New Zealand. And China, the source of the epidemic, at the very, very bottom.

Which countries are in both the top 20 in tests per 100,000 and the bottom 20 in cumulative cases per test? Cyprus, Slovakia, Denmark, UAE, Austria, Singapore. Having plenty of test kits available seems to lead to a lower proportion of tests giving positive results; as you’d expect. But the most successful countries of all in controlling the virus seem to have been those which have managed to hold cases per test down without doing a whole lot of testing: Norway, Finland, Iceland, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Fiji, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, China. Add in Mongolia, Rwanda and Bhutan as unexpected wildcards, too.

Deaths

Here are the daily deaths (weekly averaged) world-wide:

This time, you can see a lowering of death rates during April and May, after the “first wave” in Europe; during which, if the UK is any example to go by, the health “authorities” seem to have had almost no idea about how to treat serious cases.

After that, it follows much the same pattern as the daily cases per million, but displaced to the right by what looks like about 2 weeks. The deaths curve is also somewhat bumpier than the cases; suggesting that the lethality of the virus has a tendency to go up and down.

Here are the lists of shame and fame in terms of cumulative deaths per million, respectively:


The worst hit places according to this metric are all in Europe, and particularly in Eastern Europe. The count of shame is made up by Brazil, Peru, the USA and Mexico. And Bosnia, Macedonia and Slovenia were all in the top 20 on cases per test.

At the other end of the scale, seven countries which have reported cases have not suffered a single death. All island countries, except for the Vatican. Among those immediately above them, we see many of the same names that were in the bottom 20 in cases per test: New Zealand, Singapore, Fiji, China, Bhutan, Taiwan, Vietnam. It’s also worth noting the factor of 250 difference in cumulative deaths per million between Portugal at the bottom of the top 20 and Timor at the top of the bottom 20.

Singapore is unique in being high in tests done, low in cases per test, and low in deaths per million, all at the same time. I’ll put Singapore on my list for a specific case study a bit later.

Lastly, here’s the plot of deaths per million against UN HDI rating:

That doesn’t look so different from the corresponding plot of cases per million.

Deaths per case

Now for the deaths per case metric. Here are the graphs of cumulative deaths per case, and daily deaths per case with a 21-day offset. The first covers the whole course of the epidemic, the second from May onwards (the data for individual countries having been too noisy before that):


That suggests that there had been a “zeroth wave” in China at the end of 2019, which was on its way down in lethality by January 2020. By the end of January, it had led to a total of about 125 confirmed cases in: Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the USA. Unfortunately, Our World in Data no longer includes any data on cases or deaths prior to January 22nd, meaning that I can’t analyze that zeroth wave – unless I go back and take a look at the original downloads. But the first download I took, on May 2nd 2020, had no data for China at all! There was data by May 10th, though.

The death rate began to ramp up with the arrival of the “first wave” of the virus in Iran, Italy and the USA on or about February 19th 2020; peaked in early May; and has been going gently downward ever since, apart from a small hump in March 2021. The bumps in the daily deaths per case graph suggest that the virus has actually been waxing and waning in lethality every few weeks all along; just as it does in communicability. It seems that it spawns a lot more variants than just the ones you hear about in the news! The recent drop-off may be partly an artefact of not all the data on recent deaths being in yet, or partly due to the effects of vaccines, or both.

Here are the top and bottom 20 countries on the cumulative deaths per case metric:


The people of Vanuatu have been unlucky; they have had only four cases, but one death. Yemen and Syria are war zones, Somalia is all but, and many of the other countries near the top of the deaths per case league have ongoing political problems. It’s a surprise to see Mexico right up there in third place; though their health care system does seem to have had some problems in the past. And Bosnia, Bulgaria and Hungary all have high deaths per million from relatively moderate cases per million, suggesting that they too may have health care system problems.

At the other end, though, Singapore is last of all among those that have had deaths. They surely must have been doing something right! And Mongolia, the UAE, Timor, Laos and Bhutan have all appeared at the right end of the table in some of the earlier lists.

Here’s the plot of cumulative deaths per case against UN HDI index:

The trend, such as it is, is downwards. So, the more developed countries have slightly less deaths per case; as you would expect from better health care systems.

Vaccinations

Here’s the graph of world-wide vaccinations:

Those numbers look quite impressive. But 600,000,000 is only about 7.5% of the current world population. And many countries have not yet even started vaccinating. Here are the lists of the top 20 in people fully vaccinated (two jabs) and people vaccinated (one or two):


The Seychelles has the most vaccinated population in the world; but even they had new outbreaks early in May, resulting in the imposition of a new lockdown. But the Seychelles economy is almost entirely dependent on tourism, and some of the people infected have been visitors.

I’ll leave to another day the question of how well the vaccines are working. For today, I’ll simply identify a few countries, where we should already be able to see some significant effects of vaccinations. Israel and the UAE I think are good choices, particularly because they have similar populations of just under 10 million. And the only two large countries (bigger than 50 million) in the lists, the UK and the USA, need to be in there too.

To sum up

The seeming correlation between low cases per test and low deaths per million came as a bit of a surprise to me. But it seems to explain at least part of why some very different cultures, notably the Nordics and those of Chinese extraction, seem independently to be doing well against the virus, relative to other countries. They test early, and follow up quick.

Singapore seems to be an outstanding example of getting the virus response right. I’ll take a closer look at some time in the future. I’m not sure I believe the Chinese figures, particularly now the pre-January 22nd data has been disappeared; I’ll have to take a look at them, too. And Israel, the UAE, the UK and the USA will be on my list for looking at the effectiveness of vaccinations in a more quantitative way.